Loss of Ice Cover, Shifting Phenology, and More Extreme Events in Northern Hemisphere Lakes
Loss of Ice Cover, Shifting Phenology, and More Extreme Events in Northern Hemisphere Lakes
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DOI：
10.1029/2021jg006348
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发表时间：
2021-10
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影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Sapna Sharma;D. C. Richardson;R. Woolway;M. A. Imrit;D. Bouffard;K. Blagrave;J. Daly;Alessandro Filaz
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作者：
Sapna Sharma;D. C. Richardson;R. Woolway;M. A. Imrit;D. Bouffard;K. Blagrave;J. Daly;Alessandro Filaz
来自北方的长期湖冰物候记录提供了气候变化的独特敏感指标，甚至在物理气象测量站存在之前。在这里，我们更新了60个湖泊的冰物候记录，时间序列从107年到204年不等，通过在我们的研究中增加15年的冰物候记录和40个湖泊，提供了自2004年以来对北方冰趋势的首次重新评估。我们发现，在每个湖泊的整个记录中，平均每世纪结冰晚11.0天，结冰早6.8天，结冰持续时间短17.0天。在过去的25年里（1992-2016年），冰和冰持续时间的趋势比前四分之一世纪快了六倍。近几十年来，更多的极端事件，包括晚冰，早冰，更短的冰盖期，或根本没有冰盖，导致湖冰损失率增加。温室气体排放的减少可以限制气温的上升，减少湖泊冰盖的损失，从而限制生态，文化和社会经济后果，如蒸发率增加，水温升高，水质下降，以及有毒藻类的形成。
Long‐term lake ice phenological records from around the Northern Hemisphere provide unique sensitive indicators of climatic variations, even prior to the existence of physical meteorological measurement stations. Here, we updated ice phenology records for 60 lakes with time‐series ranging from 107–204 years to provide the first re‐assessment of Northern Hemispheric ice trends since 2004 by adding 15 additional years of ice phenology records and 40 lakes to our study. We found that, on average, ice‐on was 11.0 days later, ice‐off was 6.8 days earlier, and ice duration was 17.0 days shorter per century over the entire record for each lake. Trends in ice‐on and ice duration were six times faster in the last 25‐year period (1992–2016) than previous quarter centuries. More extreme events in recent decades, including late ice‐on, early ice‐off, shorter periods of ice cover, or no ice cover at all, contribute to the increasing rate of lake ice loss. Reductions in greenhouse gas emissions could limit increases in air temperature and abate losses in lake ice cover that would subsequently limit ecological, cultural, and socioeconomic consequences, such as increased evaporation rates, warmer water temperatures, degraded water quality, and the formation of toxic algal blooms.