Floods and armed conflict
Floods and armed conflict
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洪水和武装冲突
DOI：
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发表时间：
2015
影响因子：
2.1
通讯作者：
Susana Ferreira
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Ramesh Ghimire;Susana Ferreira
摘要：我们利用1985年至2009年全球大洪水数据，估计了大规模灾难性洪水对国内武装冲突的影响。结果表明，虽然大洪水没有引发新的冲突，但它们助长了现有的武装冲突。洪水和武装冲突是内生决定的，我们表明，经验解决这个内生性是很重要的。洪水对冲突发生率的估计影响要大得多的规格，控制洪水的内涝，这表明，处理自然灾害作为外源现象可能会低估其对社会政治结果的影响。
Abstract We estimate the impact of large, catastrophic floods on internal armed conflict using global data on large floods between 1985 and 2009. The results suggest that while large floods did not ignite new conflict, they fueled existing armed conflicts. Floods and armed conflict are endogenously determined, and we show that empirically addressing this endogeneity is important. The estimated effects of floods on conflict prevalence are substantially larger in specifications that control for the endogeneity of floods, suggesting that treating natural disasters as exogenous phenomena may underestimate their impacts on sociopolitical outcomes.