Forecasting the COVID-19 epidemic: the case of New Zealand
Forecasting the COVID-19 epidemic: the case of New Zealand
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DOI：
10.1080/00779954.2020.1842795
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发表时间：
2022-01-02
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Matthes, Christian
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Ho, Paul;Lubik, Thomas A.;Matthes, Christian
我们估计了新西兰COVID-19病例和死亡的统计模型。新西兰是对全球大流行病动态进行统计和理论研究的一个重要试验案例，因为它经历了一个完整的感染周期。我们选择的感染和死亡的函数形式，包含流行病学模型的重要特征，但允许灵活的参数化，以捕捉不同的流行病的轨迹。我们的贝叶斯估计表明，我们采用的简单统计框架很好地拟合了数据，并允许对感染和死亡轨迹的不确定性进行透明表征。
We estimate a statistical model for COVID-19 cases and deaths in New Zealand. New Zealand is an important test case for statistical and theoretical research into the dynamics of the global pandemic since it went through a full cycle of infections. We choose functional forms for infections and deaths that incorporate important features of epidemiological models but allow for flexible parameterization to capture different trajectories of the pandemic. Our Bayesian estimation reveals that the simple statistical framework we employ fits the data well and allows for a transparent characterization of the uncertainty surrounding the trajectories of infections and deaths.