Infections, hospitalisations, and deaths averted via a nationwide vaccination campaign using the Pfizer-BioNTech BNT162b2 mRNA COVID-19 vaccine in Israel: a retrospective surveillance study.
Infections, hospitalisations, and deaths averted via a nationwide vaccination campaign using the Pfizer-BioNTech BNT162b2 mRNA COVID-19 vaccine in Israel: a retrospective surveillance study.
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DOI：
10.1016/s1473-3099(21)00566-1
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发表时间：
2022-03
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Alroy-Preis S
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Haas EJ;McLaughlin JM;Khan F;Angulo FJ;Anis E;Lipsitch M;Singer SR;Mircus G;Brooks N;Smaja M;Pan K;Southern J;Swerdlow DL;Jodar L;Levy Y;Alroy-Preis S
2020年12月20日，以色列在全国范围内为16岁及以上人群开展了COVID-19疫苗接种活动，并仅使用辉瑞-BioNTech BNT 162 b2 mRNA COVID-19疫苗（tozinameran）。我们提供了SARS-CoV-2感染和COVID-19相关住院（即住院）人数的估计数以及全国疫苗接种运动避免的死亡人数。在这项回顾性监测研究中，我们使用了以色列卫生部从最初112天开始定期收集的国家监测数据（2020年12月20日，截至我们的数据截止日期2021年4月10日）以色列的疫苗接种运动，以估计四个结果的避免负担：SARS-CoV-2感染和COVID-19相关住院、重度或危重住院和死亡。作为活动的一部分，所有16岁及以上的人都有资格接种BNT 162 b2疫苗，两剂疫苗间隔21天。我们估计了免疫接种计划对所有易感个体（即，先前没有实验室确认的SARS-CoV-2感染证据）的直接影响，这些个体至少部分接种了疫苗（至少一剂，第一剂后至少随访14天）。我们估计了SARS-CoV-2感染相关结果的数量，这些结果是基于累积的每日、特定年龄的比率差异，比较了未接种疫苗的个体与至少部分接种疫苗的个体之间的比率，以及易感人群的（特定年龄）规模和至少部分接种疫苗的比例。我们估计，以色列的疫苗接种活动避免了158 665（95% CI 144 640-172 690）例SARS-CoV-2感染，24 597（18 942-30 252）例住院治疗，17 432（12 770-22 094）例严重或危重住院治疗和5532（3085-7982）例死亡。 据估计，24597例住院病例中有16213例（65.9%）和5532例避免死亡病例中有5035例（91.0%）为65岁及以上人群。我们估计，116000例（73.1%）SARS-CoV-2感染、19467例（79.1%）COVID-19相关住院和4351例（79%）死亡是由完全接种疫苗的人群避免的。 如果没有全国疫苗接种运动，以色列的住院和死亡人数可能会是迄今为止最大一波大流行期间的三倍，卫生保健系统可能会不堪重负。该方案的间接影响和长期效益可能很大，但没有列入这些估计数，需要今后进行研究。以色列卫生部和辉瑞公司。
On Dec 20, 2020, Israel initiated a nationwide COVID-19 vaccination campaign for people aged 16 years and older and exclusively used the Pfizer–BioNTech BNT162b2 mRNA COVID-19 vaccine (tozinameran). We provide estimates of the number of SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19-related admissions to hospital (ie, hospitalisations) and deaths averted by the nationwide vaccination campaign. In this retrospective surveillance study, we used national surveillance data routinely collected by the Israeli Ministry of Health from the first 112 days (Dec 20, 2020, up to our data cutoff of April 10, 2021) of Israel's vaccination campaign to estimate the averted burden of four outcomes: SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19-related hospitalisations, severe or critical hospitalisations, and deaths. As part of the campaign, all individuals aged 16 years and older were eligible for inoculation with the BNT162b2 vaccine in a two-dose schedule 21 days apart. We estimated the direct effects of the immunisation programme for all susceptible individuals (ie, with no previous evidence of laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection) who were at least partly vaccinated (at least one dose and at least 14 days of follow-up after the first dose). We estimated the number of SARS-CoV-2 infection-related outcomes averted on the basis of cumulative daily, age-specific rate differences, comparing rates among unvaccinated individuals with those of at least partly vaccinated individuals for each of the four outcomes and the (age-specific) size of the susceptible population and proportion that was at least partly vaccinated. We estimated that Israel's vaccination campaign averted 158 665 (95% CI 144 640–172 690) SARS-CoV-2 infections, 24 597 (18 942–30 252) hospitalisations, 17 432 (12 770–22 094) severe or critical hospitalisations, and 5532 (3085–7982) deaths. 16 213 (65·9%) of 24 597 hospitalisations and 5035 (91·0%) of 5532 of deaths averted were estimated to be among those aged 65 years and older. We estimated 116 000 (73·1%) SARS-CoV-2 infections, 19 467 (79·1%) COVID-19-related hospitalisations, and 4351 (79%) deaths averted were accounted for by the fully vaccinated population. Without the national vaccination campaign, Israel probably would have had triple the number of hospitalisations and deaths compared with what actually occurred during its largest wave of the pandemic to date, and the health-care system might have become overwhelmed. Indirect effects and long-term benefits of the programme, which could be substantial, were not included in these estimates and warrant future research. Israel Ministry of Health and Pfizer.