Modeling cocaine traffickers and counterdrug interdiction forces as a complex adaptive system
Modeling cocaine traffickers and counterdrug interdiction forces as a complex adaptive system
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1812459116
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发表时间：
2019-04-16
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Wrathall, David J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Magliocca, Nicholas R.;McSweeney, Kendra;Wrathall, David J.
旨在查获或破坏南美来源地与美国市场之间可卡因运输的反毒品拦截行动，仍然是美国“供应方”毒品政策和国家安全战略的核心。然而，尽管美国在西半球领导的禁毒努力由来已久，但通过中美洲向美国运送可卡因的活动，或称“毒品贩运”，仍在继续增加。在这里，我们开发了一个空间明确的基于主体的模型（ABM），称为“NarcoLogic”，用于研究毒贩在应对拦截力量时的行动决策，以调查跨越空间和时间的拦截无效的根本原因。所检验的中心前提是，毒品贩运的空间扩散和复原力并不是无效禁毒的结果，而是禁毒本身的一部分和自然结果。模型的发展依赖于多种理论视角、实证研究、媒体报道以及作者本人在该地区多年的实地研究。参数化和验证使用了可获得的关于非法可卡因流量的最佳权威数据源。尽管对秘密现象的数据本身存在偏见、不可靠和/或不完整，但该模型令人信服地再现了贩毒者和拦截部队之间“猫捉老鼠”的动态，其他人已经定性地描述了这种动态。该模型根据查禁事件得出了在质量上准确和在数量上切合实际的可卡因贩运时空格局。NarcoLogic模型提供了一个急需的、以证据为基础的工具，用于对不同的毒品政策情景、它们对贩运者行为的可能影响以及与军事化禁毒战争相关的许多附带损害进行强有力的评估。
Counterdrug interdiction efforts designed to seize or disrupt cocaine shipments between South American source zones and US markets remain a core US "supply side" drug policy and national security strategy. However, despite a long history of US-led interdiction efforts in the Western Hemisphere, cocaine movements to the United States through Central America, or "narcotrafficking," continue to rise. Here, we developed a spatially explicit agent-based model (ABM), called "NarcoLogic", of narco-trafficker operational decision making in response to interdiction forces to investigate the root causes of interdiction ineffectiveness across space and time. The central premise tested was that spatial proliferation and resiliency of narco-trafficking are not a consequence of ineffective interdiction, but rather part and natural consequence of interdiction itself. Model development relied on multiple theoretical perspectives, empirical studies, media reports, and the author's own years of field research in the region. Parameterization and validation used the best available, authoritative data source for illicit cocaine flows. Despite inherently biased, unreliable, and/or incomplete data of a clandestine phenomenon, the model compellingly reproduced the "cat-and-mouse" dynamic between narco-traffickers and interdiction forces others have qualitatively described. The model produced qualitatively accurate and quantitatively realistic spatial and temporal patterns of cocaine trafficking in response to interdiction events. The NarcoLogic model offers a much-needed, evidence-based tool for the robust assessment of different drug policy scenarios, and their likely impact on trafficker behavior and the many collateral damages associated with the militarized war on drugs.