Antarctic Radiosonde Observations Reduce Uncertainties and Errors in Reanalyses and Forecasts over the Southern Ocean: An Extreme Cyclone Case
Antarctic Radiosonde Observations Reduce Uncertainties and Errors in Reanalyses and Forecasts over the Southern Ocean: An Extreme Cyclone Case
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南极无线电探空仪观测减少了南大洋重新分析和预报的不确定性和错误：极端气旋案例
DOI：
10.1007/s00376-019-8231-x
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发表时间：
2020
影响因子：
5.8
通讯作者：
Yamada Kyohei
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Sato Kazutoshi;Inoue Jun;Yamazaki Akira;Hirasawa Naohiko;Sugiura Konosuke;Yamada Kyohei
强风气旋会使南大洋和南极洲成为危险的环境。准确的天气预报对于南大洋的安全航运以及南极研究站的观测和后勤业务至关重要。这项研究调查了南大洋上空“白濑”号研究船和南极洲富士圆顶站的额外无线电探空仪观测对再分析数据和预报实验的影响，所用的数据同化系统包括地球模拟器大气环流模型和局部包络变换卡尔曼滤波实验包络再分析第2版。进行了一次63人集合预报试验，重点是一次异常强烈的南极气旋事件。再分析数据与（观测系统实验）和没有（控制）额外的无线电探空仪数据被用作初始值。观测系统的实验正确地捕捉到了气旋的中心气压，从而可靠地预报了沿海附近的强风和水汽输送。相反，控制实验预测的风速较低，因为它未能充分预测气旋的中心压力。发现业务预报系统的气旋预报有差异和没有同化的无线电探空观测圆顶富士站。
Cyclones with strong winds can make the Southern Ocean and the Antarctic a dangerous environment. Accurate weather forecasts are essential for safe shipping in the Southern Ocean and observational and logistical operations at Antarctic research stations. This study investigated the impact of additional radiosonde observations from Research Vessel “Shirase” over the Southern Ocean and Dome Fuji Station in Antarctica on reanalysis data and forecast experiments using an ensemble data assimilation system comprising the Atmospheric General Circulation Model for the Earth Simulator and the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter Experimental Ensemble Reanalysis, version 2. A 63-member ensemble forecast experiment was conducted focusing on an unusually strong Antarctic cyclonic event. Reanalysis data with (observing system experiment) and without (control) additional radiosonde data were used as initial values. The observing system experiment correctly captured the central pressure of the cyclone, which led to the reliable prediction of the strong winds and moisture transport near the coast. Conversely, the control experiment predicted lower wind speeds because it failed to forecast the central pressure of the cyclone adequately. Differences were found in cyclone predictions of operational forecast systems with and without assimilation of radiosonde observations from Dome Fuji Station.