[Disease numbers in pneumology - a projection to 2060].
[Disease numbers in pneumology - a projection to 2060].
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DOI：
10.1055/s-0030-1255637
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发表时间：
2010-09-01
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Katalinic, A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Pritzkuleit, R;Beske, F;Katalinic, A
背景：人口结构的变化导致人口年龄构成的变化。我们计算了德国到2060年的五种肺疾病（COPD、CAP、肺癌、支气管哮喘和肺结核）的绝对数量的现状预测。材料和方法：根据联邦统计局第12次协调人口预测，我们将年龄和性别特异性发病率和患病率分别转移到预期人口中。所有描述的发展是完全基于人口变化。结果：支气管哮喘和肺结核的绝对数量将经历一个轻微的下降。我们预计COPD和肺癌的病例数首先会增加，然后会减少。CAP的病例数可能会大幅增加。由于人口的减少，发病率（人口的疾病负担）将大大增加。讨论：人口结构的变化主要是由于预期寿命的增加，出生率持续低，以及婴儿潮一代进入更高疾病风险的年龄。由于卫生系统的负担不断增加，包括肺部疾病，因此需要讨论卫生保健的优先次序。
BACKGROUND: The demographic change leads to a change in the age-composition of the population. We have calculated a status quo projection of the absolute numbers for five diagnoses of the lung (COPD, CAP, lung cancer, bronchial asthma and tuberculosis) for Germany up to 2060.MATERIAL AND METHODS: Based on the 12 (th) coordinated population prediction of the Federal Statistics Office, we transferred age- and sex-specific incidence and prevalence rates, respectively, to the expected population. All described developments are based solely on demographic changes.RESULTS: The absolute numbers of bronchial asthma and tuberculosis will experience a minor decrease. We expect at first increasing and later decreasing case numbers for COPD and lung cancer. A major increase of the case numbers for CAP will be probable. By reason of a decreasing population, the rates (burden of disease for the population) will increase considerably.DISCUSSION: The demographic change is mainly caused by increasing life expectancy, constantly low birth rates, and the entry of the baby-boom generation into the age of higher disease risks. A discussion about prioritisation of health care is needed because of the rising burdens for the health system, including diseases of the lung.