Projecting terrestrial biodiversity intactness with GLOBIO 4
Projecting terrestrial biodiversity intactness with GLOBIO 4
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使用 GLOBIO 4 预测陆地生物多样性完整性
DOI：
10.1111/gcb.14848
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发表时间：
2019
影响因子：
11.6
通讯作者：
M. Huijbregts
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Schipper;J. Hilbers;Johan R. Meijer;L. Antão;A. Benítez‐López;Melinda M J de Jonge;L. Leemans;E. Scheper;R. Alkemade;J. Doelman;S. Mylius;E. Stehfest;D. V. van Vuuren;Willem;M. Huijbregts
基于情景的生物多样性建模是评估未来社会经济发展如何影响生物多样性的有效方法。在这里，我们评估了陆地生物多样性完整性的变化，以平均物种丰度（MSA）指标表示，这是由三种共享的社会经济路径（SSP）与不同程度的气候变化（根据代表性浓度路径[RCP]）相结合造成的：面向可持续发展的未来（SSP1xRCP2.6）、由政治分裂的世界决定的未来（SSP3xRCP6.0）以及全球持续依赖化石燃料的未来（SSP5xRCP8.5）。为此，我们首先更新了 GLOBIO 模型，该模型现在的运行空间分辨率为 10 角秒（约 300 m），包含用于缩小土地利用规模和量化热带狩猎影响的新模块，以及用于量化气候变化、土地利用、栖息地破碎化和氮污染影响的更新模块。然后，我们使用更新后的模型来预测 2015 年至 2050 年陆地生物多样性的完整性，作为与所选情景相对应的土地利用和气候变化的函数。我们估计 2015 年全球面积加权平均 MSA 为 0.56。生物多样性完整性在所有三种情景中均有所下降，但可持续性情景中的下降幅度 (-0.02) 小于区域竞争和化石燃料发展情景中的下降幅度（分别为 -0.06 和 -0.05）。我们进一步发现，世界不同地区之间预计的生物多样性变化存在很大差异，特别是撒哈拉以南非洲地区未来损失巨大。在某些情景-区域组合中，我们预计由于农业用地需求减少，未来生物多样性将恢复，但这种恢复被其他压力（特别是气候变化和道路干扰）影响的增加所抵消。阻止或扭转陆地生物多样性下降的有效措施不仅应减少土地需求（例如通过提高农业生产力和饮食变化），还应注重减少或减轻其他压力的影响。
Scenario‐based biodiversity modelling is a powerful approach to evaluate how possible future socio‐economic developments may affect biodiversity. Here, we evaluated the changes in terrestrial biodiversity intactness, expressed by the mean species abundance (MSA) metric, resulting from three of the shared socio‐economic pathways (SSPs) combined with different levels of climate change (according to representative concentration pathways [RCPs]): a future oriented towards sustainability (SSP1xRCP2.6), a future determined by a politically divided world (SSP3xRCP6.0) and a future with continued global dependency on fossil fuels (SSP5xRCP8.5). To this end, we first updated the GLOBIO model, which now runs at a spatial resolution of 10 arc‐seconds (~300 m), contains new modules for downscaling land use and for quantifying impacts of hunting in the tropics, and updated modules to quantify impacts of climate change, land use, habitat fragmentation and nitrogen pollution. We then used the updated model to project terrestrial biodiversity intactness from 2015 to 2050 as a function of land use and climate changes corresponding with the selected scenarios. We estimated a global area‐weighted mean MSA of 0.56 for 2015. Biodiversity intactness declined in all three scenarios, yet the decline was smaller in the sustainability scenario (−0.02) than the regional rivalry and fossil‐fuelled development scenarios (−0.06 and −0.05 respectively). We further found considerable variation in projected biodiversity change among different world regions, with large future losses particularly for sub‐Saharan Africa. In some scenario‐region combinations, we projected future biodiversity recovery due to reduced demands for agricultural land, yet this recovery was counteracted by increased impacts of other pressures (notably climate change and road disturbance). Effective measures to halt or reverse the decline of terrestrial biodiversity should not only reduce land demand (e.g. by increasing agricultural productivity and dietary changes) but also focus on reducing or mitigating the impacts of other pressures.