Forecasting a 2-methylisoborneol outbreak in a brackish lake
Forecasting a 2-methylisoborneol outbreak in a brackish lake
复制标题
咸水湖中 2-甲基异冰片爆发的预测
DOI：
10.1007/s10661-021-09140-9
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发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
3
通讯作者：
H. Tanji
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kazunori Shizuka;N. Maie;W. Kakino;H. Taruya;H. Tanji
2-甲基异冰片醇（2-MIB）是蓝藻产生土臭和霉味的主要原因，使水产品和自来水的质量恶化。尽管需要控制暴发，但在捕捞渔业活跃的微咸湖泊中对2-MIB进行的研究很少。本研究利用对长期监测数据的统计分析，研究了咸淡湖中水质与2-MIB爆发之间的关系，并开发了2-MIB爆发的预测模型。我们调查了小川原湖，这是一个日本寒温带的微咸湖泊，在8月至12月期间经常发生2-MIB暴发。以2-MIB（2-MIB(+ /−)）爆发或未爆发为因变量，水质参数为自变量，进行Logistic回归分析。结果表明，当(1)磷限制放松下溶解无机氮浓度较低和(2)盐度或微量元素浓度较高时，产2- mb蓝藻的密度较高。此外，我们成功开发了具有高预测能力的预测模型，仅使用两个水质参数：4月份的溶解无机磷酸盐和pH以及5月份的总氮/总磷和盐度，就可以确定8月至12月的2-MIB（+ /−）。
2-Methylisoborneol (2-MIB) is the primary cause of the earthy and musty odor produced by cyanobacteria, which deteriorates the quality of fishery products and tap water. Despite the need for controlling outbreaks, few studies have been conducted on 2-MIB in brackish lakes, where capture fisheries are active. This study examined the association between water quality and the outbreak of 2-MIB in a brackish lake using statistical analysis of long-term monitoring data and developed forecasting models for 2-MIB outbreaks. We investigated Lake Ogawara, which is a brackish lake with a cool-temperate climate in Japan, where 2-MIB outbreaks frequently occur between August and December. Logistic regression analyses were performed using the outbreak or non-outbreak of 2-MIB (2-MIB(+ / −)) as the dependent variable and water quality parameters as the independent variables. The results suggested that the density of 2-MIB-producing cyanobacteria was higher when (1) dissolved inorganic nitrogen concentrations were low under the relaxation of phosphorus limitation and/or (2) salinity or micronutrient concentrations were high. In addition, we successfully developed forecasting models with a high predictive power that determined 2-MIB(+ / −) in August–December using only two water quality parameters: dissolved inorganic phosphate and pH in April and total nitrogen/total phosphorous and salinity in May.
影响因子：
11.4
作者：
Giglio, S.;Chou, W. K. W.;Ikeda, H.;Cane, D. E.;Monis, P. T.
通讯作者：
Monis, P. T.