Scenario analysis of mine water inrush hazard using Bayesian networks
Scenario analysis of mine water inrush hazard using Bayesian networks
复制标题
基于贝叶斯网络的矿井突水灾害情景分析
DOI：
10.1016/j.ssci.2016.06.013
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发表时间：
2016-11-01
期刊：
影响因子：
6.1
通讯作者：
Qin, Yueping
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Wu, Jiansong;Xu, Shengdi;Qin, Yueping
随着开采深度的增加，矿井突水水文地质特征日趋复杂，突水过程中存在着许多未知的或新的危险因素。这给防灾工作带来了更高的复杂性，并给评估灾害演变和执行灾害响应带来了很大困难。提出了一种基于情景分析和贝叶斯网络相结合的矿井突水事故发生概率评估框架。通过对典型矿井突水事故的案例分析和专家判断，提出了4类12个表征矿井突水演化的情景要素，并按不同的状态进行了分类。在此基础上，构建了矿井突水预测的贝叶斯网络。通过设定情景要素的不同状态组合，计算并分析了典型突水情景和灾难性严重突水情景的发生概率。建议的框架，用于评估发生矿井突水的概率可能有助于建立一个“情景响应”为基础的矿井突水灾害响应策略。(C)2016爱思唯尔有限公司版权所有
Mine water inrushes involve in many unidentified or new risk factors due to the complex hydrogeological features arising with the increasing mining depth. This creates a higher level of complexity for disaster preparedness and leads to great difficulty in evaluating the hazard evolution and performing disaster response. This paper presented a framework using the Scenario Analysis methodology combined with the Bayesian networks for evaluating the probability of the occurrence of mine water inrush accident. Based on cases study of typical mine water inrush accidents and expert judgment, twelve scenario elements of four types for representing mine water inrush evolution were proposed and classified with different states. On the basis of the twelve classified scenario elements, the Bayesian network of mine water inrush was constructed. Through setting up different state combinations of the scenario elements, various probabilities of four mine water inrush scenarios including typical ones and catastrophically serious ones were calculated and analyzed. The proposed framework for evaluating the probabilities of the occurrence of mine water inrushes could be helpful to establish a "Scenario-Response" based disaster response strategy for mine water inrushes. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.