USING VIDEO MONITORING TO ASSESS THE ACCURACY OF NEST FATE AND NEST PRODUCTIVITY ESTIMATES BY FIELD OBSERVATION
USING VIDEO MONITORING TO ASSESS THE ACCURACY OF NEST FATE AND NEST PRODUCTIVITY ESTIMATES BY FIELD OBSERVATION
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DOI：
10.1525/auk.2012.11224
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发表时间：
2012-07-01
期刊：
影响因子：
2.8
通讯作者：
Bayne, Erin M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ball, Jeffrey R.;Bayne, Erin M.
巢的命运和巢生产力是了解鸣禽种群动态的关键人口参数，但很少考虑支付评估和提高这些估计在外地的准确性。我们认为，13种北方森林鸣禽的巢的命运和生产力，这种错误的影响时，估计巢的生存率和人口增长率，和公用事业领域的线索，用于评估命运的估计误差的幅度和来源。使用来自127个鸟巢的视频，我们发现观察者正确识别了85%的鸟巢命运，但高估了高达35%的鸟巢生产力。这导致人口增长率被高估了6%。当雏鸟年龄接近估计的羽翼成熟日期以及巢穴被掠夺时，实地估计的准确性较差。实地估计的准确性可以通过关注巢况和巢外粪便的存在来提高。当仅根据雏鸟年龄就认为巢是成功的时，花额外的时间寻找家庭群体是谨慎的。巢掠食者迫使一个或多个雏鸟从14%的巢。这些刚长出翅膀的幼崽的命运不得而知。随着越来越多的年轻人被认为是成功的，我们的错误衡量标准下降了。解决这种不确定性将进一步提高实地估计的准确性。我们鼓励使用视频来量化和提高现场估计的准确性，并评估感兴趣的变量内的误差差异偏差的可能性。接收日期：2011年10月6日，接受日期：2012年4月13日。
Nest fate and nest productivity are key demographic parameters for understanding songbird population dynamics, yet little consideration has been paid to assessing and improving the accuracy of these estimates in the field. We considered the magnitude and sources of error in field estimates of nest fate and productivity for 13 species of boreal forest songbirds, the implications of this error when estimating rates of nest survival and population growth, and the utility of common field cues used to assess fate. Using video from 127 nests, we found that observers correctly identified 85% of nest fates but overestimated nest productivity by up to 35%. This resulted in population growth rates being overestimated by 6%. Field estimates were less accurate when nestling age approached the estimated fledge date and when the nest was depredated. Accuracy of field estimates can be improved by focusing on nest condition and the presence of fecal droppings outside the nest. Spending additional time searching for family groups would be prudent when nests are deemed successful on the basis of nestling age alone. Nest predators force fledged one or more nestlings from 14% of nests. The fate of force-fledged young is unknown. Our measures of error declined as increasingly younger force-fledged individuals were considered successful. Resolving this uncertainty would further improve the accuracy of field-based estimates. We encourage the use of video to quantify and improve the accuracy of field estimates and to evaluate the potential for differential bias in error within variables of interest. Received 6 October 2011, accepted 13 April 2012.