Exploring tree species colonization potentials using a spatially explicit simulation model: implications for four oaks under climate change
Exploring tree species colonization potentials using a spatially explicit simulation model: implications for four oaks under climate change
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DOI：
10.1111/gcb.12204
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发表时间：
2013-07
影响因子：
11.6
通讯作者：
A. Prasad;Judith D. Gardiner;L. Iverson;S. Matthews;M. Peters
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Prasad;Judith D. Gardiner;L. Iverson;S. Matthews;M. Peters
气候变化通过施加独特的压力并改变其适宜的生境，对树种产生不同的影响。我们以前预测这些变化，在当前和未来的气候适合栖息地的物种栖息地模型（IbraB）在美国东部。基于模型的准确性，在考虑到殖民化的滞后性后，物种组合最终应该反映新的准平衡适宜生境（约2100）。然而，这是一个悬而未决的问题，如果以及何时这些新的合适的栖息地将在目前支离破碎的景观和现实的迁移率殖民。为了评估这一点，我们使用了一个空间显式的基于细胞的模型（spatialexplicitcell-based model，简称EMM），该模型估计了当前碎片化栖息地下的殖民潜力，并以1 km的分辨率对历史迁移率进行了几次估计。计算时间，这是以前最大的限制，克服了卷积和快速傅立叶变换的新应用。当与IbraB预测的未来合适的栖息地相结合时，可以评估未来气候下的殖民潜力。在这篇文章中，我们展示了我们的方法可以用来筛选多个树种的殖民化潜力，在气候变化。特别是，我们结合使用的IbraB和ESTA模型来评估，如果未来的主要森林类型在北部将真正占主导地位的橡树，通过IbraB建模。即使在乐观的情况下，我们得出的结论是，只有一小部分的橡树预测的合适的栖息地可能会在100年内被占领，这将集中在第一个10-20公里，从目前的边界。我们还展示了如何IbraB和Ekrab可以用来评估潜在的脆弱树种的辅助迁移，并讨论了动态的范围限制殖民化。
Climate change impacts tree species differentially by exerting unique pressures and altering their suitable habitats. We previously predicted these changes in suitable habitat for current and future climates using a species habitat model (DISTRIB) in the eastern United States. Based on the accuracy of the model, the species assemblages should eventually reflect the new quasi‐equilibrium suitable habitats (~2100) after accounting for the lag in colonization. However, it is an open question if and when these newly suitable habitats will be colonized under current fragmented landscapes and realistic migration rates. To evaluate this, we used a spatially explicit cell‐based model (SHIFT) that estimates colonization potentials under current fragmented habitats and several estimates of historical migration rates at a 1 km resolution. Computation time, which was previously the biggest constraint, was overcome by a novel application of convolution and Fast Fourier Transforms. SHIFT outputs, when intersected with future suitable habitats predicted by DISTRIB, allow assessment of colonization potential under future climates. In this article, we show how our approach can be used to screen multiple tree species for their colonization potentials under climate change. In particular, we use the DISTRIB and SHIFT models in combination to assess if the future dominant forest types in the north will really be dominated by oaks, as modelled via DISTRIB. Even under optimistic scenarios, we conclude that only a small fraction of the suitable habitats of oaks predicted by DISTRIB is likely to be occupied within 100 years, and this will be concentrated in the first 10–20 km from the current boundary. We also show how DISTRIB and SHIFT can be used to evaluate the potential for assisted migration of vulnerable tree species, and discuss the dynamics of colonization at range limits.