Contribution of Wave Setup to Projected Coastal Sea Level Changes
Contribution of Wave Setup to Projected Coastal Sea Level Changes
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DOI：
10.1029/2020jc016078
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发表时间：
2020-08-01
影响因子：
3.6
通讯作者：
Ruggiero, P.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Melet, A.;Almar, R.;Ruggiero, P.
在沿着开阔的海岸，风浪是海岸变化的主要驱动力，也是海岸灾害的主要因素。预计风浪特征将因气候变化而发生变化，特别是由于大气环流模式和相关地面风的变化。在这里，一阶估计预计20年的平均波设置的变化，不包括极端事件和年际变化，提供了桑迪沿着世界上大部分的海岸线在中间和结束的21世纪世纪。计算是基于代表性的浓度路径（RCP）8.5和经验公式的波设置下的波模型预测的合奏。预测波设置的变化进行比较，目前占在区域海平面预测，以扩大现有的预测21世纪世纪沿海海平面变化的其他贡献者。预测的波浪设置变化表现出明显的空间异质性，并且大多在全球范围内平均。然而，在区域或局部尺度上，波设置的变化是一个小的，但不可忽视的贡献，总沿海海平面20年的平均变化（其中包括全球平均海平面上升，GMSLR）在21世纪中叶和年底。波浪建立可以是一个实质性的贡献，当地偏离沿海海平面变化从GMSLR。因此，在预测沿海海平面变化的区域模式时，应考虑波浪结构的变化。所报告的波浪结构的长期变化也主张将非定常波浪的贡献纳入沿海海平面变化的预测区域模式，包括极端事件的研究。
Along open coasts, wind waves are a key driver of coastal changes and can be major contributors to coastal hazards. Wind wave characteristics are projected to change in response to climate change, notably due to changes in atmospheric circulation patterns and the associated surface winds. Here, a first-order estimate of projected 20-yr mean wave setup changes, excluding extreme events and subannual variability, is provided for sandy beaches along most of the world's coastline over the middle and end of the 21st century. Calculations are based on an ensemble of wave model projections under the representative concentration pathways (RCP) 8.5 and on empirical formulations for wave setup. Projected wave setup changes are compared to other contributors currently accounted for in regional sea level projections to extend existing projections of 21st century coastal sea level changes. Projected wave setup changes exhibit a clear spatial heterogeneity and mostly average out at global scale. However, at regional or local scale, wave setup changes are a small yet nonnegligible contributor to total coastal sea level 20-yr mean changes (which include global mean sea level rise, GMSLR) over the middle and end of the 21st century. Wave setup can be a substantial contributor to local departures of coastal sea level changes from GMSLR. Wave setup changes should therefore be included in projections of regional patterns of coastal sea level changes. The reported long-term changes in wave setup also advocate for the inclusion of nonstationary wave contributions to projected regional patterns of coastal sea level changes, including for studies on extreme events.