Aerosol Forcing Masks and Delays the Formation of the North Atlantic Warming Hole by Three Decades.
Aerosol Forcing Masks and Delays the Formation of the North Atlantic Warming Hole by Three Decades.
复制标题
气溶胶强迫掩盖并推迟了北大西洋暖洞的形成三十年。
DOI：
10.1029/2020gl090778
复制
发表时间：
2020-11-28
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Watson-Parris D
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dagan G;Stier P;Watson-Parris D
北大西洋变暖洞(NAWH)被称为在人为因素驱动的全球变暖期间，北大西洋变暖甚至变冷的减少。21世纪的气候模型预测了北半球的气候变化，其模式已经在观测中显现出来。尽管已知北大西洋表面温度在决定北半球气候中的关键作用，但北大西洋表面温度背后的机制仍然不完全清楚。利用最先进的气候模式，我们表明，人为气溶胶强迫反对NAWH的形成(通过导致局部变暖)，并将其出现推迟约3000万年。与前人的研究一致，我们还证明了气溶胶强迫下北大西洋的相对变暖是由于海洋热通量的变化，而不是由于海气通量的变化。这些结果表明，预测的21世纪气溶胶强迫的减少可能会加速NAWH的形成。利用CMIP6和CESM-LE模拟表明，气溶胶强迫产生了全球变冷的趋势，北大西洋变暖，这一趋势与由于温室气体气溶胶强迫将北大西洋变暖洞的形成推迟了约30年而导致的北大西洋变暖洞的趋势相反
The North Atlantic warming hole (NAWH) is referred to as a reduced warming, or even cooling, of the North Atlantic during an anthropogenic‐driven global warming. A NAWH is predicted by climate models during the 21st century, and its pattern is already emerging in observations. Despite the known key role of the North Atlantic surface temperatures in setting the Northern Hemisphere climate, the mechanisms behind the NAWH are still not fully understood. Using state‐of‐the‐art climate models, we show that anthropogenic aerosol forcing opposes the formation of the NAWH (by leading to a local warming) and delays its emergence by about 30 years. In agreement with previous studies, we also demonstrate that the relative warming of the North Atlantic under aerosol forcing is due to changes in ocean heat fluxes, rather than air‐sea fluxes. These results suggest that the predicted reduction in aerosol forcing during the 21st century may accelerate the formation of the NAWH. Using CMIP6 and CESM‐LE simulations, we show that aerosol forcing generates a global cooling trend with a warming in the North Atlantic This trend opposes the North Atlantic warming hole trend due to greenhouse gases Aerosol forcing delays the formation of the North Atlantic warming hole by about 30 years