The impact of creating mathematical formula to predict cardiovascular events in patients with heart failure.
The impact of creating mathematical formula to predict cardiovascular events in patients with heart failure.
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DOI：
10.1038/s41598-018-22347-0
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发表时间：
2018-03-05
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Kitakaze M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Sakamoto M;Fukuda H;Kim J;Ide T;Kinugawa S;Fukushima A;Tsutsui H;Ishii A;Ito S;Asanuma H;Asakura M;Washio T;Kitakaze M
由于我们的回顾性研究已经形成了一个数学公式，α = f（x1，...，x252），其中α是心力衰竭（HF）患者发生心血管事件的概率，x1是每个临床参数，我们前瞻性地测试了HF患者心血管事件数学公式的预测能力和可行性。首先，为了使用有限数量的参数来创建这样的数学公式以预测HF患者中的心血管事件，我们回顾性地确定f（x），该f（x）用167名因急性HF住院的患者来表示252个参数中最有影响力的50个临床参数（x）之间的关系;非线性最优化可以得到α = f（x1，...，x50）的公式，该公式拟合了每天实际发生心血管事件的概率。其次，我们在3家医院使用50个临床参数前瞻性地检查了其他213例患者的f（x）的可预测性，我们发现使用心血管事件的实际发生概率和估计发生概率的Kaplan-Meier曲线密切相关。我们得出结论，我们创建了一个数学公式f（x），可以精确预测HF患者每天未来心血管结局的发生概率。数学建模可以预测HF患者心血管事件的发生概率。
Since our retrospective study has formed a mathematical formula, α = f(x1, …, x252), where α is the probability of cardiovascular events in patients with heart failure (HF) and x1 is each clinical parameter, we prospectively tested the predictive capability and feasibility of the mathematical formula of cardiovascular events in HF patients. First of all, to create such a mathematical formula using limited number of the parameters to predict the cardiovascular events in HF patients, we retrospectively determined f(x) that formulates the relationship between the most influential 50 clinical parameters (x) among 252 parameters using 167 patients hospitalized due to acute HF; the nonlinear optimization could provide the formula of α = f(x1, …, x50) which fitted the probability of the actual cardiovascular events per day. Secondly, we prospectively examined the predictability of f(x) in other 213 patients using 50 clinical parameters in 3 hospitals, and we found that the Kaplan–Meier curves using actual and estimated occurrence probabilities of cardiovascular events were closely correlated. We conclude that we created a mathematical formula f(x) that precisely predicted the occurrence probability of future cardiovascular outcomes of HF patients per day. Mathematical modelling may predict the occurrence probability of cardiovascular events in HF patients.
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影响因子：
37.8
作者：
Go AS;Mozaffarian D;Roger VL;Benjamin EJ;Berry JD;Blaha MJ;Dai S;Ford ES;Fox CS;Franco S;Fullerton HJ;Gillespie C;Hailpern SM;Heit JA;Howard VJ;Huffman MD;Judd SE;Kissela BM;Kittner SJ;Lackland DT;Lichtman JH;Lisabeth LD;Mackey RH;Magid DJ;Marcus GM;Marelli A;Matchar DB;McGuire DK;Mohler ER 3rd;Moy CS;Mussolino ME;Neumar RW;Nichol G;Pandey DK;Paynter NP;Reeves MJ;Sorlie PD;Stein J;Towfighi A;Turan TN;Virani SS;Wong ND;Woo D;Turner MB;American Heart Association Statistics Committee and Stroke Statistics Subcommittee
通讯作者：
American Heart Association Statistics Committee and Stroke Statistics Subcommittee
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
EFRON, B
通讯作者：
EFRON, B
影响因子：
1.7
作者：
Zhu, K.;Lou, Z.;Parikh, P.
通讯作者：
Parikh, P.
影响因子：
3.3
作者：
Chen, Chun-Yen;Yoshida, Akemi;Kitakaze, Masafumi
通讯作者：
Kitakaze, Masafumi
影响因子：
3.1
作者：
Mckinnon, KIM
通讯作者：
Mckinnon, KIM