The Impact of Chinese Import Penetration on the South African Manufacturing Sector
The Impact of Chinese Import Penetration on the South African Manufacturing Sector
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DOI：
10.1080/00220388.2014.983912
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发表时间：
2015-04
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
L. Edwards;R. Jenkins
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
L. Edwards;R. Jenkins
摘要本文采用Chenery型分解和计量经济学估计方法，评估了1992 - 2010年中国贸易对南非制造业生产和就业的影响。结果表明，来自中国的进口渗透增加导致南非制造业产出在2010年比原本的水平低5%。由于与中国的贸易，制造业总就业人数的估计减少幅度更大-2010年约为8%-因为产出的下降集中在劳动密集型产业，而且进口的增加提高了产业内的劳动生产率。
Abstract This article uses a Chenery-type decomposition and econometric estimation to evaluate the impact of Chinese trade on production and employment in South African manufacturing from 1992 to 2010. The results suggest that increased import penetration from China caused South African manufacturing output to be 5 per cent lower in 2010 than it otherwise would have been. The estimated reduction of total employment in manufacturing as a result of trade with China is larger – in 2010 about 8 per cent – because the declines in output were concentrated on labour-intensive industries and because the increase in imports raised labour productivity within industries.