THE SEGMENT LENGTH CURSE IN LONG TREE-RING CHRONOLOGY DEVELOPMENT FOR PALEOCLIMATIC STUDIES
THE SEGMENT LENGTH CURSE IN LONG TREE-RING CHRONOLOGY DEVELOPMENT FOR PALEOCLIMATIC STUDIES
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DOI：
10.1177/095968369500500211
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发表时间：
1995-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
2.4
通讯作者：
FUNKHOUSER, G
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
COOK, ER;BRIFFA, KR;FUNKHOUSER, G
回顾了由交叉年轮宽度序列的重叠片段构建数千年长的树轮年表的问题，重点是保留可能由于气候原因而产生的极低频率信号。在这样做的过程中，引入了一个基本的统计问题，即“分段长度诅咒”。这一“诅咒”与这样一个事实有关，即可恢复的气候信息的最大波长通常与用于构建数千年长的年表的单个年轮系列的长度有关。我们用简单的正弦波实验来说明这一事实。然后是更现实的实验，使用长长的马尾松系列，它被随机分成1000年、500年和2000年的部分，并使用三种非常保守的方法进行标准化。与原始的未切割序列相比，即使应用了最保守和不确定的树轮标准化方法(即，一条穿过平均值的水平线)，所产生的‘年表’也显示了节段长度的影响。描述了寻求驱除片段长度诅咒的年表开发的替代方案。虽然它们显示出一些希望，但它们的适用性都不是普遍的，这个问题在很大程度上仍然没有得到解决。
The problem of constructing millennia-long tree-ring chronologies from overlapping segments of cross-dated ring-width series is reviewed, with an emphasis on preserving very low-frequency signals potentially due to climate. In so doing, a fundamental statistical problem coined the 'segment length curse' is introduced. This 'curse' is related to the fact that the maximum wavelength of recoverable climatic information is ordinarily related to the lengths of the individual tree-ring series used to construct the millennia-long chronology. Simple experiments with sine waves are used to illustrate this fact. This is followed by more realistic experiments using a long bristlecone pine series that is randomly cut into a number of 1000-, 500- and 200-year segments and standardized using three very conservative methods. When compared against the original, uncut series, the resulting 'chronologies' show the effects of segment length even when the most conservative and noncommittal method of tree-ring standardization is applied (i.e., a horizontal line through the mean). Alternative schemes of chronology development are described that seek to exorcise the segment length curse. While they show some promise, none is universal in its applicability and this problem still remains largely unsolved.