Impacts of Climate Change on Volcanic Stratospheric Injections: Comparison of 1-D and 3-D Plume Model Projections
Impacts of Climate Change on Volcanic Stratospheric Injections: Comparison of 1-D and 3-D Plume Model Projections
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DOI：
10.1029/2019gl083975
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发表时间：
2019-09-01
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Jellinek, A. M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Aubry, T. J.;Cerminara, M.;Jellinek, A. M.
火山爆发是气候变化最重要的驱动因素之一。然而，我们仍然缺乏对气候变化如何影响未来火山爆发的基本理解。在这里，我们使用了一维和三维火山柱模型的综合模拟，涵盖了大范围的喷发源和大气条件，以评估未来喷发柱的动力学变化。我们的研究结果揭示了一维和三维羽流模型预测之间的差异。此外，这两种模式都表明，由于持续的气候变化，对于热带火山喷发，(i)火山喷发需要更高的喷发强度才能到达对流层上层/平流层下层，（ii）目前到达对流层上层/平流层下层或以上的火山喷发高度将会增加。我们讨论了这些结果对未来火山爆发的气候影响的影响。我们的模拟可以直接为气候-火山反馈的气候模式实验提供信息。
Explosive volcanic eruptions are one of the most important driver of climate variability. Yet, we still lack a fundamental understanding of how climate change may affect future eruptions. Here, we use an ensemble of simulations by 1-D and 3-D volcanic plume models spanning a large range of eruption source and atmospheric conditions to assess changes in the dynamics of future eruptive columns. Our results shed new light on differences between the predictions of 1-D and 3-D plume models. Furthermore, both models suggest that as a result of ongoing climate change, for tropical eruptions, (i) higher eruption intensities will be required for plumes to reach the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere and (ii) the height of plumes currently reaching the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere or above will increase. We discuss the implications of these results for the climatic impacts of future eruptions. Our simulations can directly inform climate model experiments on climate-volcano feedback.