Validation of the Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center nomogram to predict disease-specific survival in a Chinese gastric cancer population receiving postoperative chemoradiotherapy after an R0 resection.
Validation of the Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center nomogram to predict disease-specific survival in a Chinese gastric cancer population receiving postoperative chemoradiotherapy after an R0 resection.
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验证纪念斯隆凯特琳癌症中心列线图预测 R0 切除后接受术后放化疗的中国胃癌人群的疾病特异性生存率。
DOI：
10.18632/oncotarget.11665
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发表时间：
2016-10-04
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Zhang Z
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Zhou ML;Wang L;Wang JZ;Yang W;Hu R;Li GC;Sheng WQ;Zhang Z
经广泛验证的纪念斯隆凯特琳癌症中心 (MSKCC) 胃癌 (GC) 列线图是根据仅接受 R0 切除的患者开发的。本研究的目的是评估该列线图在胃癌 R0 切除后接受术后放化疗 (CRT) 的中国患者中的表现。回顾性收集2006年至2015年复旦大学附属肿瘤医院（FUSCC）150例符合条件的患者的临床数据，并用于外部验证。列线图通过一致性指数 (CI) 和校准图进行验证。列线图的 CI 为 0.657，低于仅接受手术的患者的列线图 CI (0.80)。在校准图中，随着预测的 5 年疾病特异性生存率 (DSS) 下降，观察到的生存率与预测的生存率之间的差距逐渐增大。因此，GC 的 MSKCC 列线图显着低估了 FUSCC 队列中患者的生存率，尤其是预测 5 年 DSS 低于 50% 的患者的生存率。目前的研究表明列线图有可能成为识别术后 CRT 目标患者的理想工具。
The widely validated Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC) nomogram for gastric carcinoma (GC) was developed based on patients who received R0 resection only. The purpose of the current study was to assess the performance of this nomogram in Chinese patients who received postoperative chemoradiotherapy (CRT) after an R0 resection for GC. From 2006 to 2015, the clinical data of 150 eligible patients were retrospectively collected from the Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center (FUSCC) and used for external validation. The nomogram was validated by means of the concordance index (CI) and a calibration plot. The CI for the nomogram was 0.657, which was lower than the CI of the nomogram for patients who received surgery alone (0.80). In the calibration plot, the gap between the observed and the predicted survival gradually increased as the predicted 5-year disease-specific survival (DSS) decreased. Thus the MSKCC nomogram for GC significantly underestimated the survival of patients in the FUSCC cohort, especially the survival of patients whose predicted 5-year DSS was less than 50%. The current study indicates the potential for the nomogram to be developed as an ideal tool to identify target patients for postoperative CRT.