Trend analysis of seasonal rainfall and temperature pattern in Kalahandi, Bolangir and Koraput districts of Odisha, India
Trend analysis of seasonal rainfall and temperature pattern in Kalahandi, Bolangir and Koraput districts of Odisha, India
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DOI：
10.1002/asl.932
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发表时间：
2019-07-17
影响因子：
3
通讯作者：
Sahu, Netrananda
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Panda, Arpita;Sahu, Netrananda
气候变率，特别是年气温和降雨量的变率，在世界范围内受到了极大的关注。这些因素的可变性或波动程度因地点而异。因此，在气候变化的背景下，特别是在以农业为主导的国家，研究气象变量的时空动态，对于评估气候引起的变化和提出可行的适应战略至关重要。为此，本研究探讨了奥里萨邦Kalahandi，Bolangir和Koraput（以下简称KBK）地区季风降雨量和温度的长期变化和短期波动。本研究分析了1980-2017年期间的降雨和温度数据。统计趋势分析技术，即曼-肯德尔检验和森的斜率估计，检查和分析的问题。对37年资料的详细分析表明，年最高气温和年最低气温呈上升趋势，而季风的最高气温和最低气温呈下降趋势。在1980-2017年期间，降雨量检测到统计学显著趋势，并且结果在99%置信限下具有统计学显著性。JJAS季节的降雨量呈现出相当好的增长趋势（森氏斜率= 4.034）。就观测期最高气温而言，呈轻微增暖或上升趋势（Sen 'sslope = 0.29）而最低气温趋势呈降温趋势（Sen斜率= -0.006），但最高温度趋势分析结果在95%置信限下具有统计学显著性，相反，最低气温的趋势分析结果在统计上不显著。
Climate variability, particularly that of the annual air temperature and rainfall, has received a great deal of attention worldwide. The magnitude of the variability or fluctuations of the factors varies according to locations. Hence, examining the spatiotemporal dynamics of meteorological variables in the context of changing climate, particularly in countries where rainfed agriculture is predominant, is vital to assess climate-induced changes and suggest feasible adaptation strategies. To that end, the present study examines long-term changes and short-term fluctuations in monsoonal rainfall and temperature over Kalahandi, Bolangir and Koraput (hereafter KBK) districts in the state of Odisha. Both rainfall and temperature data for period of 1980-2017 were analyzed in this study. Statistical trend analysis techniques namely Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator were used to examine and analyze the problems. The detailed analysis of the data for 37 years indicate that the annual maximum temperature and annual minimum temperature have shown an increasing trend, whereas the monsoon's maximum and minimum temperatures have shown a decreasing trend. Statistically significant trends are detected for rainfall and also the result is statistically significant at 99% confidence limit during the period of 1980-2017. Rainfall is showing a quite good increasing trend (Sen's slope = 4.034) for JJAS season. In the case of maximum temperature for the observed period, it showed a slight warming or increasing trend (Sen's slope = 0.29) while the minimum temperature trend showed a cooling trend (Sen's slope = -0.006) but result of maximum temperature trend analysis is statistically significant at 95% confidence limit, on the contrary, the trend analysis result of minimum temperature is not statistically significant.