Changes in yield and yield stability in wheat during the 20th century
Changes in yield and yield stability in wheat during the 20th century
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DOI：
10.1016/s0378-4290(98)00080-x
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发表时间：
1998-06-01
影响因子：
5.8
通讯作者：
Slafer, GA
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Calderini, DF;Slafer, GA
对21个国家（阿尔及利亚、阿根廷、澳大利亚、加拿大、智利、埃及、法国、德国、印度、意大利、日本、墨西哥、新西兰、南非、西班牙、瑞典、突尼斯、联合王国、乌拉圭、美国和前苏联）整个世纪的产量和产量稳定性趋势进行了分析。回归（线性，双线性或三线性拟合与优化技术）被用来评估产量的趋势在世纪。这些回归的残差和相对残差分别用于评价产量稳定性的绝对和相对趋势。各国在产量和产量增加以及收获面积的变化方面差异很大。但在本世纪的最初30至50年，几乎所有这些作物都表现出显著的产量增加不足，随后产量显著增加。阿根廷、澳大利亚、加拿大和美国等相对年轻的小麦出口国的产量趋势揭示了一个重要的转折点。比欧洲小麦生产传统更悠久的国家早20年。此外，在过去十年中，许多国家的收益率增长明显趋于平稳。本世纪的产量残差趋势表明，在所分析的21个国家中，有14个国家的产量稳定性下降，但与产量增长相比，产量残差的增长相对较小（小于或等于0.3兆克/公顷）。因此，相对产量残差表明，在大多数分析的国家，产量稳定性，作为产量的百分比，增加或至少没有变化。此外，据认为，小麦生产系统，一般来说，在增加产量，同时保持或增加相对产量稳定性相对于现有的世纪初，是非常成功的。最后，没有发现产量稳定性的变化之间的关系，无论是在绝对值和相对值，并在目前的价值和那些在世纪初的产量比较增加。(C)1998 Elsevier Science B. V.保留所有权利。
An analysis of trends in yield and yield stability throughout the century was made for 21 countries (Algeria, Argentina, Australia, Canada, Chile, Egypt, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Mexico, New Zealand, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Tunisia, UK, Uruguay, USA and the former USSR). Regressions (linear, bi-linear or tri-linear fitted with an optimisation technique) were used to evaluate the trends in yield during the century. Residuals and relative residuals of these regressions were used to evaluate in absolute and relative terms, respectively, trends in yield stability. Countries varied greatly in their yields and yield gains as well as in changes in harvested area. But almost all of them showed a remarkable lack of yield gain during the initial 3 to 5 decades of this century, followed by noticeable increases in yield. Yield trends for relatively young agricultural wheat-exporting countries, such as Argentina, Australia, Canada and USA, reveal an important breakpoint ca. 2 decades earlier than European countries with longer tradition in wheat production. Ln addition, yield gains in many countries have apparently been levelling off during the last decade. Trends in yield residuals during the present century revealed a decrease in yield stability in 14 of the 21 countries analysed, but the increase in yield residuals was relatively small (less than or equal to 0.3 Mg ha(-1)) compared with increases in yield. Therefore, relative yield residuals indicated that yield stability, as a percentage of yield, increased or at least did not change for most of the analysed countries. Moreover, it is suggested that wheat production systems have been, in general, highly successful in increasing yield while maintaining or increasing relative yield stability with respect to that existing at the beginning of the century. Finally, no relationship was found between variations in yield stability, both in absolute and relative terms, and the increase in yield comparing the present values and those at the beginning of the century. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.