THEORETICAL RISKS AND TABULAR ASTERISKS - KARL, RONALD, AND SLOW PROGRESS OF SOFT PSYCHOLOGY
THEORETICAL RISKS AND TABULAR ASTERISKS - KARL, RONALD, AND SLOW PROGRESS OF SOFT PSYCHOLOGY
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DOI：
10.1037/0022-006x.46.4.806
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发表时间：
1978-01-01
影响因子：
5.9
通讯作者：
MEEHL, PE
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
MEEHL, PE
这篇转载的文章最初发表在《咨询与临床心理学杂志》1978年8月第46卷(第4期)第806-834年。(原文摘要见Record 1979-25042-001。)心理学的“软”领域的理论(如临床、咨询、社会、人格、学校和社区)缺乏科学知识的累积特征，因为它们往往既不被驳斥也不被证实，而是随着人们失去兴趣而逐渐消失。尽管固有的主题困难(列出了20个)促成了这一点，但对显著性检验的过度依赖也是部分原因(罗纳德A.费舍尔)卡尔·波普尔的方法经过修改后，将是预防性的。由于零假设几乎总是错误的，按照“显著差异”的模式总结研究的表格只不过是统计幂函数复杂的、因果上无法解释的结果。估计数值点值的多条路径(“一致性测试”)更好，即使用粗略公差进行近似；如果缺少这种方法，则应使用范围、排序、二阶差分、曲线峰谷和函数形式。这种方法在很少报告统计学意义的发达科学中很常见……(心理信息数据库记录(C)2024 APA，保留所有权利)
This reprinted article originally appeared in Journal of Consulting & Clinical Psychology, Vol 46 (4) Aug 1978, 806-834.(The following abstract of the original article appeared in record 1979-25042-001.) Theories in" soft" areas of psychology (eg, clinical, counseling, social, personality, school, and community) lack the cumulative character of scientific knowledge because they tend neither to be refuted nor corroborated, but instead merely fade away as people lose interest. Even though intrinsic subject matter difficulties (20 are listed) contribute to this, the excessive reliance on significance testing is partly responsible (Ronald A. Fisher). Karl Popper's approach, with modifications, would be prophylactic. Since the null hypothesis is quasi-always false, tables summarizing research in terms of patterns of" significant differences" are little more than complex, causally uninterpretable outcomes of statistical power functions. Multiple paths to estimating numerical point values (" consistency tests") are better, even if approximate with rough tolerances; and lacking this, ranges, orderings, 2nd-order differences, curve peaks and valleys, and function forms should be used. Such methods are usual in developed sciences that seldom report statistical significance....(PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved)