Record-breaking climate extremes in Africa under stabilized 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming scenarios
Record-breaking climate extremes in Africa under stabilized 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming scenarios
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全球变暖稳定在 1.5 摄氏度和 2 摄氏度情景下，非洲出现破纪录的极端气候
DOI：
10.1038/s41558-018-0145-6
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发表时间：
2018-05-01
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Li, Donghuan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Nangombe, Shingirai;Zhou, Tianjun;Li, Donghuan
预计人为强迫将增加极端事件的规模和频率（1），其影响在非洲等已经脆弱的地区将特别明显（2）。然而，非洲极端气候的预计变化仍然很少探讨，特别是在巴黎协定目标的背景下（3，4）。在这里，使用社区地球系统模型低变暖模拟（5），我们研究了在稳定的1.5摄氏度和2摄氏度情景下，非洲的热量和水文极端可能如何变化，重点关注与观察到的破纪录季节具有可比量级的事件的预测变化可能性。在共同体地球系统模型中，建议将世纪末变暖限制在1.5摄氏度，以大幅降低极端高温的频率。特别是，如果将变暖限制在1.5摄氏度而不是2摄氏度，则类似于1991/1992年12月至2月南部非洲和2009/2010年北非热浪的事件的概率估计分别减少25+/-5%和20+/-4%。相比之下，对于水文气象极端事件（即干旱和强降水），信号差异与集合成员之间的变化是无法区分的。因此，根据这一模式，继续努力将升温限制在1.5摄氏度，在尽量减少极端高温及其对整个非洲的相关社会经济影响方面具有相当大的好处。
Anthropogenic forcing is anticipated to increase the magnitude and frequency of extreme events(1), the impacts of which will be particularly hard-felt in already vulnerable locations such as Africa(2). However, projected changes in African climate extremes remain little explored, particularly in the context of the Paris Agreement targets(3,4). Here, using Community Earth System Model low warming simulations(5), we examine how heat and hydrological extremes may change in Africa under stabilized 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C scenarios, focusing on the projected changing likelihood of events that have comparable magnitudes to observed record-breaking seasons. In the Community Earth System Model, limiting end-of-century warming to 1.5 degrees C is suggested to robustly reduce the frequency of heat extremes compared to 2 degrees C. In particular, the probability of events similar to the December-February 1991/1992 southern African and 2009/2010 North African heat waves is estimated to be reduced by 25+/-5% and 20+/-4%, respectively, if warming is limited to 1.5 degrees C instead of 2 degrees C. For hydrometeorological extremes (that is, drought and heavy precipitation), by contrast, signal differences are indistinguishable from the variation between ensemble members. Thus, according to this model, continued efforts to limit warming to 1.5 degrees C offer considerable benefits in terms of minimizing heat extremes and their associated socio-economic impacts across Africa.