The implications of warming climate for the management of North Sea demersal fisheries
The implications of warming climate for the management of North Sea demersal fisheries
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DOI：
10.1016/j.icesjms.2005.04.023
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发表时间：
2005-10-01
影响因子：
3.3
通讯作者：
Heath, MR
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cook, RM;Heath, MR
自20世纪50年代以来，北海前面的记录显示气温逐渐上升。使用温度作为环境状态的指标，研究了北海主要种群的补充、产卵种群生物量和温度之间的关系。鳕鱼、鳕鱼和比目鱼的温度与补充量之间存在显著的负相关关系，而鳕鱼和鳕鱼的温度对补充量有积极的影响。建立了包含温度的种群补充模型，并用来研究冬季平均海面温度小幅上升时对这些种群管理的影响。这些表明，对于鳕鱼，即使在被认为是安全的捕捞死亡率的情况下，也不太可能达到最低安全生物量参考点。同样的分析表明，可持续捕捞鳕鱼仍然是可能的，其产量高于近年来经历的产量。皇冠版权(C)2005由爱思唯尔有限公司代表国际海洋勘探理事会出版。版权所有。
Since the 1950s, records front the North Sea show a gradual increase in temperature. Using temperature as a proxy indexing the state of the environment, relationships between recruitment, spawning-stock biomass, and temperature are investigated for major North Sea stocks. Cod, plaice, and sole exhibit significant negative relationships between temperature and recruitment, while there is evidence of a positive effect for saithe and whiting. Stock recruitment models that incorporate temperature are developed and used to examine implications for the management of these stocks with small increases in mean winter sea surface temperature. These suggest that for cod, minimum safe biomass reference points are unlikely to be achieved even at fishing mortality rates that are considered safe. The same analysis suggests that sustainable fishing for cod is still possible with higher yields than have been experienced in recent years. Crown Copyright (c) 2005 Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of International Council for the Exploration of the Sea. All rights reserved.