Estimating and projecting HIV prevalence and AIDS deaths in Tanzania using antenatal surveillance data
Estimating and projecting HIV prevalence and AIDS deaths in Tanzania using antenatal surveillance data
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DOI：
10.1186/1471-2458-6-120
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发表时间：
2006-05-03
影响因子：
4.5
通讯作者：
Ndayongeje, Joel
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Somi, Geofrey R.;Matee, Mecky I. N.;Ndayongeje, Joel
背景资料：艾滋病毒/艾滋病估计和预测包（EPP 2005）利用产前诊所监测数据，估计和预测艾滋病毒流行率、艾滋病毒感染者人数以及新的艾滋病毒感染和艾滋病病例。资源增值计划所得的流行率预测，可转移至人口预测模式SPECTRUM，以计算艾滋病死亡人数。本文介绍了估计和预测艾滋病毒的流行，艾滋病毒感染和艾滋病死亡的新病例在坦桑尼亚2001年和2010年之间使用EPP 2005年和SPECTRUM软件对ANC数据。1985 - 2004年ANC数据集，2005年联合国根据2002年人口普查对城市和农村成年人的人口估计，和2003年坦桑尼亚艾滋病毒指标调查的结果。根据国家对城市和农村地区的标准定义，将产前护理监测点分为城市和农村地区，这导致40个城市和35个农村诊所点。农村和城市的流行病独立运行，通过拟合模型的所有数据和水平fits.Results：全国艾滋病病毒感染率从1981年的0%上升到1995年的8.1%的峰值，并逐渐下降到6.5%，在2004年，稳定到2010年。城市艾滋病毒流行率从1981年的0%上升到1992年的12.6%，2003年至2010年稳定在10.9%至11.8%之间。农村疫情在1995年达到峰值，为7.0%，2004年逐渐下降至5.2%，2005 - 2010年稳定在5.1%-5.3%之间。预计新感染病例将稳步上升，2010年将有250 000个新病例。艾滋病造成的死亡始于1985年，稳步上升，2010年达到120 000人，女性死亡人数多于男性。新感染人数预计将稳步增加，达到250人，2010年，艾滋病毒/艾滋病感染者将达到每年10000人，这就要求我们更加协调一致地努力遏制艾滋病毒感染的蔓延，特别是在农村地区，那里需要基础设施，诸如咨询和检测、安全套获取和艾滋病信息等预防方案的发展程度较低。
Background: The Estimations and Projections Package (EPP 2005) for HIV/AIDS estimates and projects HIV prevalence, number of people living with HIV and new HIV infections and AIDS cases using antenatal clinic (ANC) surveillance data. The prevalence projection produced by EPP can be transferred to SPECTRUM, a demographic projection model, to calculate the number of AIDS deaths. This paper presents estimates and projections of HIV prevalence, new cases of HIV infections and AIDS deaths in Tanzania between 2001 and 2010 using the EPP 2005 and SPECTRUM soft-wares on ANC data.Methods: For this study we used; the 1985 - 2004 ANC data set, the 2005 UN population estimates for urban and rural adults, which is based on the 2002 population census, and results of the 2003 Tanzania HIV Indicator Survey. The ANC surveillance sites were categorized into urban and rural areas on the basis of the standard national definitions of urban and rural areas, which led to 40 urban and 35 rural clinic sites. The rural and urban epidemics were run independently by fitting the model to all data and on level fits.Results: The national HIV prevalence increased from 0% in 1981 to a peak of 8.1% in 1995, and gradually decreased to 6.5% in 2004 which stabilized until 2010. The urban HIV epidemic increased from 0% in 1981 peaking at 12.6% in 1992 and leveled to between 10.9% and 11.8% from 2003 to 2010. The rural epidemic peaked in 1995 at 7.0% and gradually declined to 5.2% in 2004, and then stabilized at between 5.1% and 5.3% from 2005 to 2010. New infections are projected to rise steadily, resulting in 250,000 new cases in 2010. Deaths due to AIDS started in 1985 and rose steadily to reach 120,000 deaths in 2010, with more females dying than men.Conclusion: The fact that the number of new infections is projected to increase steadily to reach 250,000 per year in 2010 calls for more concerted efforts to combat the spread of HIV infection particularly in the rural areas where the infrastructure needed for prevention programmes such as counseling and testing, condom accessibility and AIDS information is less developed.