Endemic stability - a veterinary idea applied to human public health
Endemic stability - a veterinary idea applied to human public health
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DOI：
10.1016/s0140-6736(00)04410-x
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发表时间：
2001-04-21
期刊：
影响因子：
168.9
通讯作者：
Woolhouse, MEJ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Coleman, PG;Perry, BD;Woolhouse, MEJ
地方病稳定性是一种人群的流行病学状态，尽管感染水平很高，但临床疾病却很少见。这个概念是为了描述牛蜱传疾病的模式而提出的。然而，我们提出了一种地方病稳定性的通用模型，适用于对公共卫生重要的更广泛的疾病，包括疟疾、风疹和腮腺炎。我们假设地方病稳定性仅要求（1）感染后出现临床疾病的概率或严重程度随着年龄的增长而增加，以及（2）一次感染后，后续感染导致疾病的概率降低。我们用简单的数学术语来表达这些标准。我们的假设预测，在某些数学情况下，部分疾病控制活动可能会进行干预。
Endemic stability is an epidemiological state of a population, in which clinical disease is scarce despite high level of infection. The notion was developed to describe patterns of tick-borne disease in cattle. However, we propose a general model of endemic stability that is applicable to a broader range of diseases that are important in public health, including malaria, rubella, and mumps. We postulate that endemic stability requires only that (1) the probability, or severity, of clinical disease after infection increases with age, and (2) after one infection, the probability that subsequent infections result in disease is reduced. We present these criteria in simple mathematical terms. Our hypothesis predicts that partial disease control activities might, under certain mathematical circumstances, interventions.