Predictors of psychosis: a 50-year follow-up of the Lundby population
Predictors of psychosis: a 50-year follow-up of the Lundby population
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DOI：
10.1007/s00406-009-0022-4
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发表时间：
2010-03-01
影响因子：
4.7
通讯作者：
Nettelbladt, Per
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Bogren, Mats;Mattisson, Cecilia;Nettelbladt, Per
行为和神经心理脆弱性与精神病风险增加有关。我们在一个50年随访的普通社区人群中调查了某些病前行为和人格相关体征和症状是否分别是非情感性和/或情感性精神病和精神分裂症的预测因子。1947年（n = 2，503）和1957年（n = 3，215）对同一集水区的总人口队列进行了行为项目和持久症状的评级，随访至1997年，关于DSM-IV非情感性和/或情感性精神病的首次发病率。脂肪酸为1- 6%。通过考克斯回归模型评估了背景因素对非情感性和/或情感性精神病发生时间的影响，这些背景因素汇总为二分变量（预测因子）。在多变量模型中，神经紧张、迟钝恶化、偏执型和疲劳分心的预测因子与随后的非情感性和/或情感性精神病显著相关。在简单模型中，抑郁-半抑郁、敏感-虚弱和易受伤害与精神病的发生显著相关。当精神分裂症单独分析时，神经紧张在多变量模型中仍然具有显著性，尽管迟钝恶化，偏执型和疲劳分心没有;异常反社会达到显著性。总之，我们发现了一些证据焦虑倾向，情感/认知迟钝，注意力不集中，人格簇A样特征和人际关系敏感与一般精神病的脆弱性。
Behavioural and neuropsychological vulnerability have been associated with an increased risk of psychosis. We investigated whether certain clusters of premorbid behavioural and personality-related signs and symptoms were predictors of nonaffective and/or affective psychosis and schizophrenia, respectively, in a 50-year follow-up of an unselected general community population. Total population cohorts from the same catchment area in 1947 (n = 2,503) and 1957 (n = 3,215) that had been rated for behavioural items and enduring symptoms were followed up to 1997 regarding first-incidence of DSM-IV nonaffective and/or affective psychosis. Attrition was 1-6%. The influence of the background factors, aggregated in dichotomous variables (predictors), on time to occurrence of nonaffective and/or affective psychosis was assessed by means of Cox regression models. In multivariate models the predictors nervous-tense, blunt-deteriorated, paranoid-schizotypal and tired-distracted were significantly associated with subsequent nonaffective and/or affective psychosis. In simple models, down-semidepressed, sensitive-frail and easily hurt were significantly associated with development of psychosis. When schizophrenia was analysed separately nervous-tense remained significant in the multivariate model, although blunt-deteriorated, paranoid-schizotypal and tired-distracted did not; and abnormal-antisocial reached significance. To conclude, we found some evidence for anxiety-proneness, affective/cognitive blunting, poor concentration, personality cluster-A like traits and interpersonal sensitivity to be associated with general psychosis vulnerability.