The effects of summer temperature and heat waves on heat-related illness in a coastal city of China, 2011-2013
The effects of summer temperature and heat waves on heat-related illness in a coastal city of China, 2011-2013
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DOI：
10.1016/j.envres.2014.04.002
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发表时间：
2014-07-01
影响因子：
8.3
通讯作者：
Liu, Qiyong
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bai, Li;Ding, Gangqiang;Liu, Qiyong
背景：最近中国热浪对健康造成的破坏性影响突显了了解极端热应激对健康影响的重要性。尽管极端高温导致的死亡率不断上升，但量化夏季极端温度对中国高温相关疾病的影响的研究非常有限。方法：利用分布滞后非线性模型，对宁波市中国2011年至2013年夏季极端高温与日常高温相关疾病之间的关系进行了检验。结果：在控制相对湿度的影响后，发现最高温度而不是热指数更能预测夏季与热有关的疾病。最高温度和与高温有关的疾病的发生之间存在明显的正相关，特别是在短滞后效应下。在2011-2013年期间发现了六次热浪，都与过热有关的疾病有关。相对于2011年和2012年同期的平均值，2013年的三次热浪期间，估计总共新增了679例与高温有关的疾病。在三个研究年的热浪期间，热浪对所有与热浪有关的疾病的显著延长影响也已被确定。热浪的累积影响最强的是2013年的严重热病，风险增加了10倍。患有更严重疾病的男性比女性更容易受到高温的影响。结论：近期热浪对宁波市中暑具有明显的滞后效应。应实施相关的积极、有组织的公共卫生倡议，以减少极端高温对疾病的不利影响。(C)2014年提交人。由爱思唯尔公司出版。
Background: Devastating health effects from recent heat waves in China have highlighted the importance of understanding health consequences from extreme heat stress. Despite the increasing mortality from extreme heat, very limited studies have quantified the effects of summer extreme temperature on heat-related illnesses in China.Methods: The associations between extreme heat and daily heat-related illnesses that occurred in the summers of 2011-2013 in Ningbo, China, have been examined, using a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) based on 3862 cases. The excess morbidities of heat-related illness during each heat wave have been calculated separately and the cumulative heat wave effects on age-, sex-, and cause-specific illnesses in each year along lags have been estimated as well.Results: After controlling the effect of relative humidity, it is found that maximum temperature, rather than heat index, was a better predictor of heat-related illnesses in summers. A positive association between maximum temperatures and occurrence of heat-related diseases was apparent, especially at short lag effects. Six heat waves, during the period of 2011-2013 were identified and all associated with excess heat-related illnesses. Relative to the average values for the corresponding periods in 2011 and 2012, a total estimated 679 extra heat-related illnesses occurred during three heat waves in 2013. The significant prolonged heat wave effects on total heat-related illnesses during heat waves in three study years have also been identified. The strongest cumulative effect of heat waves was on severe heat diseases in 2013, with a 10-fold increased risk. More males than females, individuals with more severe forms of illness, were more affected by the heat. However, all age groups were vulnerable.Conclusions: Recent heat waves had a substantial and delayed effect on heat illnesses in Ningbo. Relevant active well-organized public health initiatives should be implemented to reduce the adverse effects of heat extremes on the illnesses. (C) 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc.