Intertemporal Similarity: Discounting as a Last Resort
Intertemporal Similarity: Discounting as a Last Resort
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跨期相似性：折扣作为最后的手段
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发表时间：
2016
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通讯作者：
J. Stevens
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作者：
J. Stevens
跨期选择的标准模型假设个体通过整合奖励金额和时间延迟来贴现未来收益，从而产生贴现价值。替代模型建议，个体在属性（数量和延迟）内比较，以确定一个属性的差异是否大于另一个属性的差异，而不是在它们之间集成。例如，相似度模型1)比较两个奖励金额来确定它们是否相似，2)比较两个时间延迟的相似度，然后3)根据这些相似度判断做出决策。在这里，我测试了折扣模型和基于属性的模型，后者使用相似性判断来做出选择。在三个实验中，我收集了参与者对奖励数量和时间延迟的跨期选择和相似性判断。所有的实验都测试了贴现和相似性模型预测跨期选择的能力。模型泛化分析表明，最好的预测模型从相似性判断开始，如果相似性无法预测，则采用折现模型。相似性判断也与跨期选择数据相匹配，证明了量级效应和符号效应，从而解释了与许多贴现模型相矛盾的行为数据。这些结果强调了一种可能性，即基于属性的模型（如相似性模型）提供了折扣的替代方案，这可能有助于深入了解跨期选择的过程
Standard models of intertemporal choice assume that individuals discount future payoffs by integrating reward amounts and time delays to generate a discounted value. Alternative models propose that, rather than integrate across them, individuals compare within attributes (amounts and delays) to determine if differences in one attribute outweigh differences in another attribute. For instance, the similarity model 1) compares the two reward amounts to determine whether they are similar, 2) compares the similarity of the two time delays, and then 3) makes a decision based on these similarity judgments. Here, I tested discounting models against attribute-based models that use similarity judgments to make choices. I collected intertemporal choices and similarity judgments for the reward amounts and time delays from participants in three experiments. All experiments tested the ability of discounting and similarity models to predict intertemporal choices. Model generalization analyses showed that the best predicting models started with similarity judgments and then, if similarity failed to make a prediction, resorted to discounting models. Similarity judgments also matched intertemporal choice data demonstrating both the magnitude and sign effects, thereby accounting for behavioral data that contradict many discounting models. These results highlight the possibility that attribute-based models such as the similarity models provide alternatives to discounting that may offer insights into the process of making intertemporal choices