COMPARISON OF SIMULATED VEGETATION DISTRIBUTION IN CHINA PRODUCED BY FOUR POPULAR CLIMATE-VEGETATION CLASSIFICATION MODELS
COMPARISON OF SIMULATED VEGETATION DISTRIBUTION IN CHINA PRODUCED BY FOUR POPULAR CLIMATE-VEGETATION CLASSIFICATION MODELS
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DOI：
10.17521/cjpe.2003.0085
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发表时间：
2003
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Yang Zheng
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Yang Zheng
采用Kappa协议统计方法，比较了Penman模型、Thornthwaite模型、Holdridge生命带系统模型和Kira模型4种常用的气候-植被分类模型对中国植被地理分布的有效性和一致性。结果表明，这4种分类模型在中国植被区划的一级分类中效果良好。霍尔德里奇生命区系统的Kappa值(0.57)是四种模型中最大的。结果表明，在模拟中国植被地理分布的四种模型中，它是最好的。然而，对于一些特定的区域，如青藏高原，所有的模型都需要改进或考虑新的影响因素，以便更好地模拟植被的地理分布。1)Penman模型能较好地模拟温带草原和青藏高原植被的地理分布，Kappa值大于0.50。在四种车型中，它是最适合青藏高原的。2)Thornthwaite模型对热带雨林和季节雨林的模拟效果最好，Kappa值为0.40。它可能会弥补霍尔德里奇生命区系统在这一领域的无效。3)在中国一级植被区划的4个模型中，霍尔德里奇生命带模型的模拟效果最好，但仍不能模拟西部季雨林和热带雨林(52个)、西温带草原(63个)、青藏高原温带荒漠(86个)和青藏高原温带草原(84个)。4)Kira模式较好地模拟了副热带常绿林带，其Kappa值与Holdridge生命带系统的Kappa值接近。在低海拔和湿润/半湿润地区也能较好地模拟植被的地理分布，但在温带荒漠和青藏高原地区应用时与地面真实情况相差甚远。这项研究还表明，迫切需要开发更好的气候-植被分类模型，以便为具有植被地理分布的大气环流模型(GCM)提供更好的输入，并准确地评估气候变化对植被的可能影响。
The effectiveness and accordance of four popular climate-vegetation classification models (Penman model, Thornthwaite model, Holdridge Life Zone System and Kira model) for the geographic distribution of Chinese vegetation is compared using the KAPPA agreement statistic method. The results indicate that those four classification models work well in the first level of Chinese Vegetation Division. The KAPPA value of the Holdridge Life Zone System (0.57) is the largest among the four models. It showed that it is the best one a-mong four models in simulating the geographical distribution of Chinese vegetation. However, regarding some specific regions, for example, the Tibetan plateau, all of the models need to be refined or to take new affecting factors into account in order to obtain a better simulation of the geographic distribution of vegetation. 1) The Penman model could simulate the geographic distribution of vegetation in temperate steppe and Tibetan plateau with a KAPPA value greater than 0.50. It is the best one for Tibetan plateau among the four models. 2) The Thornthwaite model could give the best simulation for tropical rain forests and seasonal rain forests with KAPPA value of 0.40. It might compensate for the ineffectiveness of the Holdridge Life Zone System in this area. 3) The Holdridge Life Zone System is the best one among the four models for simulating the geographical distribution of vegetation in China based on the first level of vegetation division in China, but it still fails to simulate west seasonal rain forests and rain forests (52) , west temperate steppe (63) , Tibetan plateau temperate desert (86) and Tibetan plateau temperate steppe (84) . 4) The Kira model simulates the subtropical evergreen forest zone very well, and its KAPPA value in this zone is close to that of the Holdridge Life Zone System. Also it could simulate moderately well the geographical distribution of vegetation in low elevation and humid/semi-humid area, but it was far from the ground truth when applied to the regions of temperate desert and Tibetan Plateau. This research also implies that it is urgent to develop better climate-vegetation classification model in order to provide better input to the general circulation models (GCMs) with the geographic distribution of vegetation and to accurately evaluate the possible effects of climate change on vegetation.