Children’s Indirect Exposure to the U.S. Justice System: Evidence From Longitudinal Links between Survey and Administrative Data
Children’s Indirect Exposure to the U.S. Justice System: Evidence From Longitudinal Links between Survey and Administrative Data
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儿童间接接触美国司法系统：调查与行政数据之间纵向联系的证据
DOI：
10.1093/qje/qjad021
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发表时间：
2023
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Street, Brittany
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Finlay, Keith;Mueller-Smith, Michael;Street, Brittany
儿童通过亲生父母或共同成人间接接触司法系统，既是他们自身脆弱性的标志，也是司法系统在社会中广泛影响的衡量标准。由于数据资源不足，估计美国这一人口的规模历来受到阻碍，包括无法观察非监禁事件，无法跟踪儿童的整个童年，也无法测量成年非亲生父母的同居者。为了克服这些挑战，我们利用了与刑事司法行政记录系统数据相关的数十亿受限制的行政和调查记录，发现暴露率比之前报道的要高得多：监狱，1999-2005年期间出生的儿童中有9%；重罪定罪，18%；任何刑事指控，39%。黑人、美洲印第安人和低收入家庭儿童的收费暴露率超过60%。虽然更广泛的定义适用于更广泛的人群，但与儿童福祉的强烈且持续的负相关表明，这些仍然是脆弱性的有价值的预测指标。最后，我们记录了暴露的大量地理差异，我们在搬运工设计中利用这些差异来估计童年时期生活在高暴露县的影响。我们发现，搬到高暴露县的儿童更有可能经历迁移后暴露事件，并且在26岁时在多个维度（收入、犯罪活动、青少年父母身份、死亡率）上表现出明显更差的结果；对那些在较早年龄运动的人影响最大。
Children’s indirect exposure to the justice system through biological parents or coresident adults is both a marker of their own vulnerability and a measure of the justice system’s expansive reach in society. Estimating the size of this population for the United States has historically been hampered by inadequate data resources, including the inability to observe nonincarceration events, follow children throughout their childhood, and measure adult nonbiological parent cohabitants. To overcome these challenges, we leverage billions of restricted administrative and survey records linked with Criminal Justice Administrative Records System data and find substantially larger exposure rates than previously reported: prison, 9% of children born between 1999–2005; felony conviction, 18%; and any criminal charge, 39%. Charge exposure rates exceed 60% for Black, American Indian, and low-income children. While broader definitions reach a more expansive population, strong and consistently negative correlations with childhood well-being suggest that these remain valuable predictors of vulnerability. Finally, we document substantial geographic variation in exposure, which we leverage in a movers design to estimate the effect of living in a high-exposure county during childhood. We find that children moving into high-exposure counties are more likely to experience postmove exposure events and exhibit significantly worse outcomes by age 26 on multiple dimensions (earnings, criminal activity, teen parenthood, mortality); effects are strongest for those who moved at earlier ages.