A multi-period optimization model for optimal planning of China's power sector with consideration of carbon mitigation - The optimal pathway under uncertain parametric conditions
A multi-period optimization model for optimal planning of China's power sector with consideration of carbon mitigation - The optimal pathway under uncertain parametric conditions
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DOI：
10.1016/j.compchemeng.2012.10.005
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发表时间：
2013-03
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Dongjie Zhang;Pei Liu;Linwei Ma;Zheng Li
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Dongjie Zhang;Pei Liu;Linwei Ma;Zheng Li
考虑碳减排的电力工业长期规划是复杂的，涉及许多技术替代方案和无限可能的工厂安装，改造和退役。在此基础上，建立了中国电力行业多时期上层建筑优化规划模型，得到了2010-2050年中国电力行业在固定参数投入下的最优路径。利用该模型，本文试图在不确定性条件下对我国电力部门的路径进行优化，其中最有影响的参数是不确定的。通过与随机样本的最优解比较，验证了该方法的可靠性。水平化最优路径表明，在碳税存在的情况下，通过发展核电、可再生能源以及碳捕集与封存（CCS）等低碳技术，电力部门的碳排放量显著减少，而CCS将是减少煤电碳排放的关键。
Optimal planning of power industry considering carbon mitigation for a long-term future is complex, involving many technical alternatives and infinite possible plants installations, retrofitting, and decommissions. Previously the authors built a multi-period superstructure optimization planning model of China's power sector, gaining the optimal pathway of China's power sector with fixed parametric input during 2010–2050. With that model, this paper attempted to optimize pathway of China's power sector under uncertainty, in which the most influential parameters were uncertain. A levelized optimal pathway of China's power sector was gained, reliability of which was verified by comparing it with optimal results for the stochastic samples. The levelized optimal pathway showed that in the presence of carbon tax, carbon emissions of the power sector were reduced significantly by developing low-carbon technologies including nuclear power, renewables, as well as carbon capture and sequestration (CCS), and CCS would be key to reduce carbon emissions from coal power.