Trends in Japanese households' critical-metals material footprints
Trends in Japanese households' critical-metals material footprints
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ecolecon.2015.08.010
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发表时间：
2015-11
影响因子：
7
通讯作者：
Yosuke Shigetomi;K. Nansai;S. Kagawa;S. Tohno
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Yosuke Shigetomi;K. Nansai;S. Kagawa;S. Tohno
这项研究采用了材料足迹(MF)的概念，这是通过国际贸易以消费为基础的材料提取的指标，并利用全球链接投入产出模型，通过多区域投入产出方法确定了用于低碳技术的关键金属--钕、钴和铂--的材料足迹与日本家庭消费之间的关系。我们只关注2005年至2035年期间由于人口结构变化而导致的消费模式变化对金融稳定体系结构的影响。因此，2035年钕、钴和铂的总MFS估计分别比2005年下降11%、6.6%和4.7%。在商品部门方面，估计2005至2035年间，由“乘用车”引起的三种金属的MFS降幅最大。最后，我们对根据日本现行回收法处理的产品涵盖2035年计算的MFS的范围进行了评估。这表明，继续执行回收法可以在提醒消费者注意关键金属，特别是钕的MFS方面发挥重要作用。为了提高上述估计的准确性，进一步的研究需要纳入其他未来趋势，如技术和贸易。
This study adopts the concept of material footprint (MF), an indicator for consumption-based material extraction via international trade, and identifies the relationship between the MFs of critical metals for low-carbon technologies – neodymium, cobalt, and platinum – and Japanese household consumption through a multiregional input–output approach using the global link input–output model. We focus solely on the impact of changes in consumption patterns caused by demographic change on the structures of the MFs from 2005 to 2035. As a result, the total MFs of neodymium, cobalt, and platinum in 2035 are estimated to be 11%, 6.6% and 4.7% lower than in 2005, respectively. In terms of commodity sectors, the MFs of the three metals induced by “passenger motor cars” are estimated to decrease most between 2005 and 2035. Finally, we carried out an assessment of the extent to which the products dealt with under current Japanese recycling laws cover the MFs calculated for 2035. This indicates that continued enforcement of the recycling laws can play an important role in alerting consumers to the MFs of critical metals, particularly neodymium. For improving the accuracy of the above estimates, further studies need to incorporate other future trends like technologies and trade.