Modeling the biogeomorphic evolution of coastal dunes in response to climate change
Modeling the biogeomorphic evolution of coastal dunes in response to climate change
复制标题
模拟沿海沙丘生物地貌演化对气候变化的响应
DOI：
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发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
M. Riksen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Keijsers;A. V. de Groot;M. Riksen
在世界上许多地方，海岸沙丘形成了抵御海水的第一道洪水防线。为了研究气候变化对海岸沙丘演变的影响，我们采用了沙丘、海滩和植被发育的细胞模型。该模型通过荷兰海岸的现场测量进行了校准和验证，在10年的模拟中表现出良好的性能。敏感性分析表明，沙丘的大小和形态对风沙输入速率和风沙耗散速率最为敏感。最后，模拟100年气候变化情景，建立海平面上升和植被生长速率变化对沙丘演化的影响。结果与沙丘演化的概念模型吻合较好。海平面上升在很大程度上决定了沙丘演化的方向：上升速度控制着沙丘在向陆地迁移时能否保持其高度或沙量。气候变化引起的植被生长率变化的影响在沙丘对大扰动的响应中表现得最为明显。如果在模拟过程中移除植被，植被生长率决定了前沙丘是否会重新生长并恢复其高度。低植被生长率导致流动的沙丘流失沙子。观测和预测之间的良好一致性表明，该模型成功地纳入了沙丘形成过程中涉及的一系列生物地貌和海洋过程。
Coastal dunes form in many parts of the world the first flood defense line against the sea. To study effects of climate change on coastal dune evolution, we used a cellular model of dune, beach, and vegetation development. The model was calibrated and validated against field measurements of the Dutch coast, showing good performance for 10 year simulations. A sensitivity analysis showed that dune size and morphology are most sensitive to the rate of aeolian input and wave dissipation. Finally, 100 year climate change scenarios were run to establish the impacts of sea level rise and changes in vegetation growth rate on dune evolution. The results are in good agreement with conceptual models of dune evolution. Sea level rise largely determines the direction of dune evolution: the rate of rising controls whether dunes are able to preserve their height or sand volume while migrating landward. The effect of changing vegetation growth rates, resulting from climate change, is most manifest in dune response to large disturbances. If vegetation is removed halfway into the simulation, vegetation growth rate determines whether a foredune will revegetate and recover its height. Low vegetation growth rates result in mobile dunes that lose sand. The good agreement between observations and predictions indicates that the model successfully incorporates the suite of biogeomorphic and marine processes involved in dune building.
影响因子：
3.3
作者：
J. Nield;A. Baas
通讯作者：
J. Nield;A. Baas