Evaluating the direct and indirect rebound effects in household energy consumption behavior: A case study of Beijing
Evaluating the direct and indirect rebound effects in household energy consumption behavior: A case study of Beijing
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DOI：
10.1016/j.enpol.2013.02.024
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发表时间：
2013-06
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
Biying Yu;Junyi Zhang;A. Fujiwara
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Biying Yu;Junyi Zhang;A. Fujiwara
本文考察了主要家庭用品能源效率的提高是否会导致北京家庭对这些最终用途和其他最终用途的额外短期利用。首先通过将Logit模型和资源分配模型相结合来开发一个综合模型，其中前者代表最终用户所有权的选择，后者描述最终用户的使用。在预测的基础上，通过计算自弹性和交叉弹性，最终得到了回弹效应。实证结果表明，冰箱、电风扇、淋浴器、电视机、个人电脑没有明显的反弹，而空调、洗衣机、微波炉、汽车等存在显著的直接反弹效应或间接反弹效应。直接回弹效应的平均上限分别为60.76%、106.81%、100.79%和33.61%，表明洗衣机和微波炉可能产生事与愿违的效应，而总回弹效应的平均上限分别为88.95%、100.36%、626.58%和31.61%。此外，提高空调和汽车的能效，肯定可以降低使用阶段的家庭总能耗。
This paper examines whether increases in energy efficiency of major household items cause additional short-run utilization of these end uses and other end uses for households in Beijing. An integrated model is first developed by combining a Logit model and a resource allocation model, where the former represents the choice of end-use ownership and the latter describes the end-use usage. The rebound effects are finally obtained from calculating the own- and cross-elasticities based on the prediction. The empirical results show that for refrigerators, electric fans, gas showers, TVs, and PCs, no evident rebound occurs; while for air conditioners, clothes washers, microwave ovens, and cars, either a direct rebound effect or an indirect rebound effect exists significantly. The respective average upper bound of direct rebound effects for them are 60.76%, 106.81%, 100.79%, and 33.61%, suggesting a possibility of backfire for the clothes washers and microwave ovens, while the respective upper bound of total rebound effects are 88.95%, 100.36%, 626.58%, and 31.61%. Furthermore, increasing the efficiency of air conditioners and cars can definitely reduce the total household energy consumption during the use phase.