Anatomy of Sudden Yen Appreciations
Anatomy of Sudden Yen Appreciations
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日元突然升值剖析
DOI：
10.5089/9781498317344.001
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发表时间：
2019
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
N. Westelius
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fei Han;N. Westelius
日元是日本经济的重要晴雨表。折旧通常与有利的经济发展有关，如公司利润增加，股票价格上涨和国内消费价格上涨压力。另一方面，大幅升值有可能降低实际和预期的通货膨胀率，挤压企业利润，通过压低股票价格产生负面财富效应，并降低对日本银行努力振兴国内经济和实现通货膨胀目标的信心。本文将深入探讨日元快速升值的潜在驱动因素，强调套息交易和零下限作为重要放大器的关键作用。
The yen is an important barometer for the Japanese economy. Depreciations are typically associated with favorable economic developments such as increased corporate profits, rising equity prices, and upward pressure on domestic consumer prices. On the other hand, large and sharp appreciations run the risk of lowering actual and expected inflation, squeezing corporate profits, generating a negative wealth effect through depressed equity prices, and reducing confidence in the Bank of Japan’s efforts to reflate the domestic economy and achieve the inflation target. This paper takes a closer look at underlying drivers of rapid yen appreciations, highlighting the key role of carry-trade and the zero lower bound as important amplifiers.