Interdependences between current choices and future expectations in the context of Hanoians’ residential location choices
Interdependences between current choices and future expectations in the context of Hanoians’ residential location choices
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DOI：
10.1080/21680566.2015.1095659
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发表时间：
2017-01
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
M. Tran;Junyi Zhang;A. Fujiwara
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Tran;Junyi Zhang;A. Fujiwara
摘要基于前视行为和后视行为理论，建立了一个反映当前选择与未来期望之间相互依赖关系的居民区位选择模型。不仅可以观察到选择集中的特定备选方案之间的相互依赖关系（备选方案内相互依赖关系），还可以观察到不同备选方案之间的相互依赖关系（备选方案间相互依赖关系），这些相互依赖关系通过使用成对的组合logit模型来联合合并。2005年在河内对13,712名居民进行的数据分析表明，当前居民区位选择效用的总方差中有26.42-55.28%可以由区位选择效用解释，而40.81-99.37%的区位选择效用可以由当前居民区位选择效用解释（即状态依赖）。低收入者城市核心住宅的替代性内相互依赖的影响几乎是中高收入者的两倍。对于选择间的相互依赖，低收入和中高收入群体的结果相似：它可以解释总方差的37.37%-58.55%，郊区居住，但只有边际影响（0.00%-0.89%）被证实为UC居住。这些研究结果表明，FE不能被忽视的住宅区位选择行为的分析。
ABSTRACT Based on the theory of backward-looking and forward-looking behaviour, a residential location choice model is established to represent interdependences between current choices and future expectations (FE). The interdependences might be observed not only with respect to a particular alternative in a choice set (within-alternative interdependences), but also between different alternatives (between-alternative interdependences), which are jointly incorporated by using a paired combinatorial logit model. Analysis results using data collected from 13,712 individuals in Hanoi in 2005 confirmed that 26.42–55.28% of the total variance of current residential location choice utility can be explained by FE, while 40.81–99.37% of FE can be captured by current choices (i.e. state dependence). The influence of within-alternative interdependences regarding urban core (UC) residence for low-income individuals is almost double that for medium-to-high-income individuals. For between-alternative interdependences, similar results are observed for both low- and medium-to-high-income groups: it can explain 37.37–58.55% of total variance for suburban residence, but only marginal influence (0.00–0.89%) is confirmed for UC residence. These findings suggest that FE cannot be ignored in the analysis of residential location choice behaviour.