Judging cumulative risk
Judging cumulative risk
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1559-1816.1997.tb00644.x
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发表时间：
1997-03-16
影响因子：
2.5
通讯作者：
Doyle, JK
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Doyle, JK
通过要求受试者判断与不同时期暴露于短期内非常小的风险相关的长期概率，测试了年轻人对提升、健康和财产累积风险如何随时间变化的看法的准确性。过程分析显示，证据表明，战略的选择和相关的准确性取决于上下文和框架变量。被要求判断合取概率的受试者采用了各种策略，但所有这些策略都未能产生一致准确的长期概率判断。然而，被要求判断选言概率的受试者通常会将概率问题重新定义为关于危险发生的预期次数的问题，他们可以更准确地回答。的影响，促进公众了解的长期影响的累积风险的研究进行了讨论。
The accuracy of young adults' perceptions of how cumulative risks to lift, health, and property change over time was tested by asking subjects to judge the long-term probabilities associated with different periods of exposure to risks that are very small in the short term. Process analyses revealed evidence that strategy choice and associated accuracy depended on context and framing variables. Subjects asked to judge conjunctive probabilities adopted a variety of strategies, all of which failed to yield consistently accurate long-term probability judgments. However, subjects asked to judge disjunctive probabilities often reframed the probability questions into questions about the expected number of times the hazard would strike, which they could answer more accurately. Implications of the research for promoting public understanding of the long-term implications of cumulative risks are discussed.