Unraveling El Nino's impact on the East Asian Monsoon and Yangtze River summer flooding
Unraveling El Nino's impact on the East Asian Monsoon and Yangtze River summer flooding
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揭示厄尔尼诺现象对东亚季风和长江夏季洪水的影响
DOI：
10.1002/2016gl071190
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发表时间：
2016
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Cane Mark
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Zhang Wenjun;Jin Fei Fei;Stuecker Malte F;Wittenberg Andrew T;Timmermann Axel;Ren Hong Li;Kug Jong Seong;Cai Wenju;Cane Mark
强厄尔尼诺Niño事件发生后，中国约三分之一的人口居住的长江流域（YRB）会发生大规模夏季季风性洪水。虽然厄尔尼诺Niño-Southern涛动（ENSO）为地球上许多地区提供了季节性气候可预测性的主要来源，但其与东亚季风的联系机制在很大程度上仍然难以捉摸。例如，传统的Niño3.4 ENSO指数只捕捉到了东亚冬季的降水异常，而没有捕捉到夏季的降水异常。在这里，我们表明ENSO与亚洲季风之间存在着强大的全年和可预测的关系。这种联系是通过将赤道（Niño3.4）和赤道外太平洋海面温度异常（Niño‐A指数）结合成一个新的度量来揭示的，该度量捕获了ENSO的各个方面，例如它与年周期的相互作用及其不同的味道。这种对ENSO复杂性的扩展视图提高了YRB夏季洪水事件的可预测性。
Strong El Niño events are followed by massive summer monsoon flooding over the Yangtze River basin (YRB), home to about a third of the population in China. Although the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) provides the main source of seasonal climate predictability for many parts of the Earth, the mechanisms of its connection to the East Asian monsoon remain largely elusive. For instance, the traditional Niño3.4 ENSO index only captures precipitation anomalies over East Asia in boreal winter but not during the summer. Here we show that there exists a robust year‐round and predictable relationship between ENSO and the Asian monsoon. This connection is revealed by combining equatorial (Niño3.4) and off‐equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies (Niño‐A index) into a new metric that captures ENSO's various aspects, such as its interaction with the annual cycle and its different flavors. This extended view of ENSO complexity improves predictability of YRB summer flooding events.