CLIMATE CHANGE
CLIMATE CHANGE
复制标题
DOI：
10.1515/revce.2008.24.1.1
复制
发表时间：
2008
影响因子：
4.7
通讯作者：
J. Seinfeld
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
J. Seinfeld
在过去的一个世纪里，全球平均气温上升了约0.8°C。地球温度的任何重大变化都必定是地球能量平衡受到扰动（即所谓的辐射强迫）的结果。全球温度对特定辐射强迫量的平衡响应被称为地球的气候敏感度。一旦地球的能量平衡受到扰动，就会产生反馈，这些反馈要么增强要么抑制这种扰动。由温度变化导致的大气中水汽含量变化所产生的正反馈是关键。在本文中，我们评估了近期地球变暖的可能原因。我们回顾了太阳输出的测量变化，以及历史古气候记录，特别是冰期 - 间冰期循环。大气中的温室气体，如二氧化碳、甲烷和一氧化二氮，在上个世纪大幅增加；这些增加所导致的辐射强迫能够被精确计算。由大气颗粒物（气溶胶）水平增加所导致的强迫则具有相当大的不确定性。要对近期的变暖现象作出解释，就必须考虑所有这些因素。
Over the past century global average temperature has increased by about 0.8 °C. Any substantial change in the Earth's temperature must be the result of a perturbation, or so-called radiative forcing, of the planet's energy balance. The equilibrium global temperature response to a particular amount of radiative forcing is termed the Earth's climate sensitivity. Once the Earth's energy balance is perturbed, feedbacks arise that act either to enhance or suppress the perturbation. The positive feedback arising from changes in the water vapor level in the atmosphere resulting from a change in temperature is key. In this article, we evaluate the possible causes of the recent warming of the Earth. We review measured variations in the solar output, as well as the historical paleoclimate record, especially the glacial-interglacial cycles. Atmospheric greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide, have increased substantially over the last century; the radiative forcing resulting from these increases can be accurately calculated. The forcing attributable to the increase in levels of airborne particles (aerosols) is considerably more uncertain. All these factors must be taken into account to arrive at an explanation of the recent wanning.