Identifying airborne transmission as the dominant route for the spread of COVID-19
Identifying airborne transmission as the dominant route for the spread of COVID-19
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.2009637117
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发表时间：
2020-06-30
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Molina, Mario J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Zhang, Renyi;Li, Yixin;Molina, Mario J.
为对抗2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）疫情，本集团已实施多项缓解措施，包括广泛采用的社交距离及强制性面部遮盖。然而，评估这些干预措施的有效性取决于对病毒传播的理解，而这一点仍然不确定。在这里，我们表明，空气传播是高度致命的，并代表了主要途径传播疾病。通过分析2020年1月23日至5月9日中国武汉、意大利和纽约市的趋势和缓解措施，我们说明了缓解措施的影响可以从大流行的趋势中辨别出来。我们的分析显示，有无强制性面部覆盖的差异是决定三个震中大流行趋势的决定因素。仅这一保护措施就显著减少了感染人数，即意大利从4月6日至5月9日减少了78,000多人，纽约市从4月17日至5月9日减少了66,000多人。其他缓解措施，例如美国实施的社交距离，本身不足以保护公众。我们的结论是，在公共场合佩戴口罩是预防人与人之间传播的最有效手段，这种廉价的做法，加上同时进行的社交距离、隔离和接触者追踪，是阻止COVID-19大流行的最有可能的战斗机会。我们的工作还强调了一个事实，即健全的科学对于当前和未来的公共卫生流行病的决策至关重要。
Various mitigation measures have been implemented to fight the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, including widely adopted social distancing and mandated face covering. However, assessing the effectiveness of those intervention practices hinges on the understanding of virus transmission, which remains uncertain. Here we show that airborne transmission is highly virulent and represents the dominant route to spread the disease. By analyzing the trend and mitigation measures in Wuhan, China, Italy, and New York City, from January 23 to May 9, 2020, we illustrate that the impacts of mitigation measures are discernable from the trends of the pandemic. Our analysis reveals that the difference with and without mandated face covering represents the determinant in shaping the pandemic trends in the three epicenters. This protective measure alone significantly reduced the number of infections, that is, by over 78,000 in Italy from April 6 to May 9 and over 66,000 in New York City from April 17 to May 9. Other mitigation measures, such as social distancing implemented in the United States, are insufficient by themselves in protecting the public. We conclude that wearing of face masks in public corresponds to the most effective means to prevent interhuman transmission, and this inexpensive practice, in conjunction with simultaneous social distancing, quarantine, and contact tracing, represents the most likely fighting opportunity to stop the COVID-19 pandemic. Our work also highlights the fact that sound science is essential in decision-making for the current and future public health pandemics.