Measuring per Mile Risk for Pay-As-You-Drive Automobile Insurance
Measuring per Mile Risk for Pay-As-You-Drive Automobile Insurance
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DOI：
10.3141/2297-12
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发表时间：
2012-01
影响因子：
1.7
通讯作者：
J. Ferreira;E. Minikel
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Ferreira;E. Minikel
本研究考察了事故成本与年行驶里程之间的关系，以及里程数和索赔数据，这些数据代表了2006年保险单年度马萨诸塞州私人乘用车的大约300万辆单独汽车年的保险风险。泊松和线性模型将纯保费与年里程估算联系起来，表明里程是保险风险的重要预测因素，里程本身不能取代传统的评级因素，如等级和区域，当里程与这些传统评级因素结合使用时，里程获得了解释力。这些发现为“按驾付费”保险提供了强有力的精算基础，在这种保险中，司机按每英里的里程收取不同的费用，这取决于司机的等级和所在地区。基于里程弹性对汽油价格的研究，一个消费者对随驾随付保险反应的模型显示，如果马萨诸塞州的所有司机都改用按英里计算的保险政策，该州的总行驶里程将下降5.0%至9.5%。私人乘用车的温室气体排放量将减少类似的数量，按驾付费保险对社会公平的影响将是积极的。在合理的精算论证和积极的社会效益的基础上，本研究发现了一个强有力的论据，支持监管部门批准按驾付费保险。
This study examines the relationship between accident costs and annual miles driven with mileage and claims data representing approximately 3 million individual car years of insurance exposure for private passenger automobiles in Massachusetts in the 2006 policy year. Poisson and linear models relating pure premium to annual mileage estimates demonstrate that mileage is a significant predictor of insurance risk, that mileage alone cannot replace traditional rating factors such as class and territory, and that mileage gains in explanatory power when used in conjunction with those traditional rating factors. These findings provide a strong actuarial basis for pay-as-you-drive insurance, in which drivers are charged rates per mile that differ depending on the driver's class and territory. A model of consumer response to pay-as-you-drive insurance based on studies of miles elasticity to gasoline prices suggests that if all drivers in Massachusetts switched to per mile insurance policies, aggregate vehicle miles traveled in the state would drop by 5.0% to 9.5%. Greenhouse gas emissions from private passenger automobiles would be reduced by a similar amount, and the social equity implications of pay-as-you-drive insurance would be positive. On the basis of sound actuarial justification and positive social benefits, this study finds a strong argument in favor of the regulatory approval of pay-as-you-drive insurance.