Hydrologic Variations and Stochastic Modeling of Runoff in Zoige Wetland in the Eastern Tibetan Plateau
Hydrologic Variations and Stochastic Modeling of Runoff in Zoige Wetland in the Eastern Tibetan Plateau
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DOI：
10.1155/2015/529354
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发表时间：
2015-10
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
G. Qin;Hongxia Li;Ze-Ying Zhou;K. Song;Li Zhang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
G. Qin;Hongxia Li;Ze-Ying Zhou;K. Song;Li Zhang
对青藏高原东部若尔盖湿地的主要水源黑河1988-2008年的水文时间序列资料进行了分析。结果表明，黑河径流分配随年内相对变幅（m ~ 3/s）和绝对变幅（m ~ 3/s）而变化。自1988年以来，年径流量呈显著减少趋势，年径流量为20.0 m3/s（1988-1994）、19.0 m3/s（1995-2000）和15.2 m3/s（2001-2008）。丰水年径流量呈双峰分布，1988-2000年最高峰出现在7月，2001-2008年最高峰出现在10月。洪峰流量的移动意味着生长季湿地水量的减少。采用最近邻自举回归方法对黑河日径流量进行了预测。模型结果表明，日时间序列的拟合率为94.23%，可为区域水资源开发利用提供依据。
Hydrological time series data (1988–2008) of the Hei River, the main water source to Zoige wetland in the Eastern Tibetan Plateau, were investigated. Results showed that the runoff distribution of Hei River varies with the relative change in amplitude () and the absolute change in amplitude ( m3/s) during the year. There was a significant decreasing trend since 1988 with annual runoff of 20.0 m3/s (1988–1994), 19.0 m3/s (1995–2000), and 15.2 m3/s (2001–2008). There were double peaks in runoff during the water year: the highest peak in the period of 1988–2000 occurred in July while in the period of 2001–2008 it occurred in October. Shifting peak flow means less water quantity in wetland during growing season. Nearest neighbor bootstrapping regressive method was used to predict daily runoff of the Hei River. Model results show that it was fitted with 94.23% of for daily time series, which can provide a basis for the development and utilization of regional water resources.