An accurate risk score based on anthropometric, dietary, and lifestyle factors to predict the development of type 2 diabetes
An accurate risk score based on anthropometric, dietary, and lifestyle factors to predict the development of type 2 diabetes
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DOI：
10.2337/dc06-2089
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发表时间：
2007-03-01
期刊：
影响因子：
16.2
通讯作者：
Joost, Hans-Georg
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Schulze, Matthias B.;Hoffmann, Kurt;Joost, Hans-Georg
目的-我们的目的是开发一个精确的风险评分，用于筛查德国研究人群中主要危险因素的非侵入性测量基础上的2型糖尿病高危人群。（欧洲癌症与营养前瞻性调查[EPIC]-波茨坦研究）的9，729名男性和15，438名女性，年龄35-65岁，用于推导预测2型糖尿病发病的风险评分。使用多变量考克斯回归模型系数来权衡模型中的每个变量。分数的计算。数据来自EPIC-Heidelberg、Tubingen 2型糖尿病（TF）家族研究和柏林波茨坦代谢综合征结果-关于年龄、腰围、身高、高血压史、体育活动、吸烟和红肉、全麦面包、咖啡的消费的信息，德国糖尿病风险评分（平均446分[范围118-983]）。在EPIC-Potsdam研究中，5年内发生糖尿病的概率从300分的0.3%增加到750分的23.2%。EPIC-Potsdam和EPIC-Heidelberg研究的受试者-操作者特征（ROC）曲线下面积分别为0.84和0.82。德国糖尿病风险评分与非糖尿病个体胰岛素敏感性之间的相关系数在TUF研究中为-0.56，在MeSyBePo研究中为-0.45。ROC值为未确诊的糖尿病分别为0.83 TUF和0.75 MeSyBePo studies.CONCLUSIONS -德国糖尿病风险评分（可在www.dife.de）是一个准确的工具，以确定个人在高风险或未确诊的2型糖尿病。
OBJECTIVE - We aimed to develop a precise risk score for the screening of large populations for individuals at high risk of developing type 2 diabetes based on noninvasive measurements of major risk factors in German study populations.RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS - A prospective cohort study (European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition [EPIC]-Potsdam study) of 9,729 men and 15,438 women aged 35-65 years was used to derive a risk score predicting incident type 2 diabetes. Multivariate Cox regression model coefficients were used to weigh each variable in the. calculation of the score. Data from the EPIC-Heidelberg, the Tubingen Family Study for Type 2 Diabetes (T F), and the Metabolic Syndrome Berlin Potsdam (MeSyBePo) study were used to validate this score.RESULTS - information on age, waist circumference, height, history of hypertension, physical activity, smoking, and consumption of red meat, whole-grain bread, coffee, and alcohol formed the German Diabetes Risk Score (mean 446 points [range 118-983]). The probability of developing diabetes within 5 years in the EPIC-Potsdam study increased from 0.3% for 300 to 23.2% for 750 score points. The area under the receiver-operator characteristic (ROC) curve was 0.84 in the EPIC-Potsdam and 0.82 in the EPIC-Heidelberg studies. Correlation coefficients between the German Diabetes Risk Score and insulin sensitivity in nondiabetic individuals were -0.56 in the TUF and -0.45 in the MeSyBePo studies. ROC values for undiagnosed diabetes were 0.83 in the TUF and 0.75 in the MeSyBePo studies.CONCLUSIONS - The German Diabetes Risk Score (available at www.dife.de) is an accurate tool to identify individuals at high risk for or with undiagnosed type 2 diabetes.