Climate change and thermal comfort in Hong Kong
Climate change and thermal comfort in Hong Kong
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DOI：
10.1007/s00484-012-0608-9
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发表时间：
2014-03-01
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Hart, Melissa Anne
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cheung, Chi Shing Calvin;Hart, Melissa Anne
热舒适是城市的一个主要问题，由于气候的变化，预计未来会发生变化。本文的目的是利用通用热舒适指数（UTCI）比较香港在过去（1971-2000年）和未来（2046-2065年和2081-2100年）的室外热舒适。香港未来的气候是由政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）所建立的一般环流模式（GCM）模拟未来气候情景（A1B和B1）所决定的。基于GCMs对过去气候的模拟效果，选择GISS-ER、GFDL-CM2.1和MRI-CGCM2.3.2 3种GCMs。通过统计降尺度程序，将未来气候变量转移到局地尺度。UTCI由四个预测的气候变量计算：气温、风速、相对湿度和太阳辐射。经过标准化程序后，为香港市区建立了未来的UTCI概况。对比过去UTCI（由观测资料计算）和未来UTCI， 3种GCMs都预测未来气候情景具有更高的模态和更高的最大值。在2046-2065年期间，从“无热应力”向“中度热应力”和“强热应力”转变，在后期（2081-2100年）变得更加严重。对比两种情景，B1在两个时间段内表现出相似的预估，而A1B在两个时间段内表现出显著差异，模态和最大值在2046-2065年至2081-2100年间都增加了2℃。
Thermal comfort is a major issue in cities and it is expected to change in the future due to the changing climate. The objective of this paper is to use the universal thermal comfort index (UTCI) to compare the outdoor thermal comfort in Hong Kong in the past (1971-2000) and the future (2046-2065 and 2081-2100). The future climate of Hong Kong was determined by the general circulation model (GCM) simulations of future climate scenarios (A1B and B1) established by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Three GCMs were chosen, GISS-ER, GFDL-CM2.1 and MRI-CGCM2.3.2, based on their performance in simulating past climate. Through a statistical downscaling procedure, the future climatic variables were transferred to the local scale. The UTCI is calculated by four predicted climate variables: air temperature, wind speed, relative humidity and solar radiation. After a normalisation procedure, future UTCI profiles for the urban area of Hong Kong were created. Comparing the past UTCI (calculated by observation data) and future UTCI, all three GCMs predicted that the future climate scenarios have a higher mode and a higher maximum value. There is a shift from 'No Thermal Stress' toward 'Moderate Heat Stress' and 'Strong Heat Stress' during the period 2046-2065, becoming more severe for the later period (2081-2100). Comparing the two scenarios, B1 exhibited similar projections in the two time periods whereas for A1B there was a significant difference, with both the mode and maximum increasing by 2 A degrees C from 2046-2065 to 2081-2100.