Mexico's Business Cycles and Synchronization with the USA in the Post‐NAFTA Years
Mexico's Business Cycles and Synchronization with the USA in the Post‐NAFTA Years
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北美自由贸易协定后几年墨西哥的商业周期以及与美国的同步
DOI：
10.1111/j.1467-9361.2011.00632.x
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发表时间：
2011
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Chu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
W. Miles;Chu
许多论文调查了墨西哥和美国之间日益密切的宏观经济联系。然而，这些研究依赖于线性模型，这使得他们的结果令人怀疑。其他论文研究了墨西哥商业周期的非线性，但没有研究墨西哥和美国经济之间的联系。本文利用马尔可夫切换模型研究了美国宏观经济变化对墨西哥的影响。调查结果显示，自北大西洋自由贸易协会(NAFTA)通过以来，美国确实似乎比前几年产生了更大的影响。结果还表明，自北美自由贸易协定以来，外汇储备水平对墨西哥经济的预测能力要小得多。这表明，与美国商业周期的更大同步可能更多地归因于墨西哥更好的宏观经济管理，而不是更紧密的贸易联系。
A number of papers have investigated the increasing macroeconomic ties between Mexico and the USA. These studies have relied on linear models, however, making their results suspect. Other papers have investigated nonlinearity over the Mexican business cycle, but have not studied the links between the Mexican and US economies. In this paper a Markov‐switching model is employed to investigate the changing macroeconomic effect of the USA on Mexico. The findings show that the USA indeed appears to have a much larger impact since the passage of the North Atlantic Free Trade Association (NAFTA) than in previous years. Results also indicate that the level of foreign exchange reserves has much less predictive power for the Mexican economy since NAFTA. This suggests that the greater synchronization with the US business cycle may be more attributable to better macroeconomic management in Mexico than to the closer trade links.