MODELING THE NILE BASIN UNDER CLIMATIC CHANGE
MODELING THE NILE BASIN UNDER CLIMATIC CHANGE
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DOI：
10.1061/(asce)1084-0699(1998)3:2(98
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发表时间：
1998-04
影响因子：
2.4
通讯作者：
D. Yates;K. Strzepek
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
D. Yates;K. Strzepek
本文介绍了尼罗河流域每月水量平衡模型（WBNILE）的开发和应用，用于评估气候变化对尼罗河径流的潜在影响。WBNILE模型由12个尼罗河流域组成，包括赤道非洲湖区和苏德沼泽的特征。该模型使用降水、温度、相对湿度和日照时数等月平均气候变量，每个流域根据观测到的月平均流量进行校准。利用5种全球环流模式（GCMs）对各次流域的平均气温和降水变化进行了模拟，以评估气候变化对径流的影响。结果显示了该盆地对气候波动的敏感性，因为5个GCM中有4个预测了赤道非洲明显更大的流量和苏德沼泽的扩张，而青尼罗河和阿特巴拉盆地的埃塞俄比亚高地的结果则取决于GCM情景。
This paper presents the development and application of a monthly water balance model of the Nile River basin (WBNILE) for assessing potential climatic change impacts on Nile runoff. The WBNILE model consists of 12 Nile subcatchments, including characterization of the lakes region of equatorial Africa and the Sudd swamp. The model uses mean monthly climate variables of precipitation, temperature, relative humidity, and sunshine hours, and each basin is calibrated from observed monthly averaged discharge. Areally averaged temperature and precipitation changes from five global circulation models (GCMs) were imposed on each subbasin for assessing climate change impacts on runoff. Results showed the sensitivity of the basin to climate fluctuations, because four of five GCMs predicted significantly larger flows in equatorial Africa and the expansion of the Sudd swamps, whereas there was a range of results for the Ethiopian highlands of the Blue Nile and Atbara basins depending on the GCM scenario.