A Sensitivity Study of the Thermodynamic Environment on GFDL Model Hurricane Intensity: Implications for Global Warming
A Sensitivity Study of the Thermodynamic Environment on GFDL Model Hurricane Intensity: Implications for Global Warming
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GFDL 模型飓风强度热力学环境的敏感性研究：对全球变暖的影响
DOI：
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发表时间：
2000
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
I. Ginis
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
W. Shen;R. Tuleya;I. Ginis
在这项研究中，飓风强度的热力学环境变化的影响进行了广泛的调查与美国国家海洋和大气管理局地球物理流体动力学实验室飓风模型的一套实验与不同的初始对流层上层温度异常高达648 C和海面温度范围从268到318 C给定相同的相对湿度廓线。结果表明，环境大气的稳定和海表温度（SST）的增加对飓风强度产生相反的影响。大气稳定度增加（减少）与SST增加（减少）的抵消关系在参数空间中是单调的、系统的。这意味着飓风强度的增加，由于可能的全球变暖与增加二氧化碳是远远小于预期的海洋沃茨变暖单独。结果还表明，强（弱）飓风强度对大气稳定度和海温变化的敏感性较大（较小）。模式得到的飓风强度与最大地面蒸发量和大尺度环境对流有效位能有很好的相关性。模型获得的飓风强度是高度相关的能量，可从湿绝热上升附近的眼壁相对于一个参考探空在未受干扰的环境中的所有实验。飓风-海洋耦合实验表明，飓风强度对大气稳定性和SST变化的敏感性降低，因为海洋耦合导致更强（更弱）的飓风强度降低更大（更小）。这意味着与可能的全球变暖有关的飓风强度增加较少，因为二氧化碳增加。
In this study, the effect of thermodynamic environmental changes on hurricane intensity is extensively investigated with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory hurricane model for a suite of experiments with different initial upper-tropospheric temperature anomalies up to 648C and sea surface temperatures ranging from 268 to 318C given the same relative humidity profile. The results indicate that stabilization in the environmental atmosphere and sea surface temperature (SST) increase cause opposing effects on hurricane intensity. The offsetting relationship between the effects of atmospheric stability increase (decrease) and SST increase (decrease) is monotonic and systematic in the parameter space. This implies that hurricane intensity increase due to a possible global warming associated with increased CO2 is considerably smaller than that expected from warming of the oceanic waters alone. The results also indicate that the intensity of stronger (weaker) hurricanes is more (less) sensitive to atmospheric stability and SST changes. The model-attained hurricane intensity is found to be well correlated with the maximum surface evaporation and the large-scale environmental convective available potential energy. The model-attained hurricane intensity is highly correlated with the energy available from wet-adiabatic ascent near the eyewall relative to a reference sounding in the undisturbed environment for all the experiments. Coupled hurricane‐ocean experiments show that hurricane intensity becomes less sensitive to atmospheric stability and SST changes since the ocean coupling causes larger (smaller) intensity reduction for stronger (weaker) hurricanes. This implies less increase of hurricane intensity related to a possible global warming due to increased CO 2.