Potential short-term outcome of an uncontrolled COVID-19 epidemic in Lombardy, Italy, February to March 2020
Potential short-term outcome of an uncontrolled COVID-19 epidemic in Lombardy, Italy, February to March 2020
复制标题
DOI：
10.2807/1560-7917.es.2020.25.12.2000293
复制
发表时间：
2020-03-26
期刊：
影响因子：
19
通讯作者：
Merler, Stefano
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Guzzetta, Giorgio;Poletti, Piero;Merler, Stefano
意大利仍在持续传播冠状病毒病(新冠肺炎)，截至2020年3月8日，已报告7 375例病例和366例死亡。我们提供基于模型的伦巴第患者记录评估，预测不受控制的流行病对医疗系统的影响。它有可能在3周内导致超过250,039例(95%可信区间：147,717-459,890)病例，包括37,194(95%CRL：22,250-67，63z)需要重症监护的患者。需要采取积极的遏制战略。
Sustained coronavirus disease (COVID-19) transmission is ongoing in Italy, with 7,375 reported cases and 366 deaths by 8 March 2020. We provide a modelbased evaluation of patient records from Lombardy, predicting the impact of an uncontrolled epidemic on the healthcare system. It has the potential to cause more than 250,039 (95% credible interval (CO): 147,717-459,890) cases within 3 weeks, including 37,194 (95% Crl: 22,250-67,63z) patients requiring intensive care. Aggressive containment strategies are required.