World distribution of land cover changes during Pre- and Protohistoric Times and estimation of induced carbon releases
World distribution of land cover changes during Pre- and Protohistoric Times and estimation of induced carbon releases
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DOI：
10.4000/geomorphologie.7756
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发表时间：
2009-12
影响因子：
0.6
通讯作者：
C. Lemmen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
C. Lemmen
史前和史前人类活动引起的土地覆被变化的作用需要加以量化，以便：（i）建立一个基线，与当前人类活动对环境的影响进行比较;（ii）将其与环境中自然发生的变化区分开来。结果是从简单的，适应驱动的，空间上明确的全球土地利用和技术演变模拟器（GLUES）前青铜时代的人口，技术和经济变化。利用全球环境历史数据库中的尺度参数以及GLUES模拟的人口密度和生存方式，估算了种植作物的土地需求。利用动态全球植被模型VECODE，将农田侵入潜在的森林地区转化为森林砍伐造成的碳损失。重要的史前生长区的土地需求-从大部分森林地区转化-导致大规模的区域（国家规模）森林砍伐高达11%的潜在森林。在公元前10000年至公元前2000年之间，全球森林总共损失了290亿吨碳，并被农作物所取代;这一数值与其他对史前森林砍伐的估计一致。在区域分辨率上产生现实的（农业）文化发展轨迹是GLUES的主要优势。青铜时代前的大部分森林砍伐都是在从中欧经印度到中国的广阔农业带中模拟的。区域碳损失是，例如，欧洲和地中海地区为50亿吨，印度次大陆为60亿吨，东亚和东南亚为180亿吨，撒哈拉以南非洲为230亿吨。
The role of Pre- and Protohistoric anthropogenic land cover changes needs to be quantified i) to establish a baseline for comparison with current human impact on the environment and ii) to separate it from naturally occurring changes in our environment. Results are presented from the simple, adaptation-driven, spatially explicit Global Land Use and technological Evolution Simulator (GLUES) for pre-Bronze age demographic, technological and economic change. Using scaling parameters from the History Database of the Global Environment as well as GLUES-simulated population density and subsistence style, the land requirement for growing crops is estimated. The intrusion of cropland into potentially forested areas is translated into carbon loss due to deforestation with the dynamic global vegetation model VECODE. The land demand in important Prehistoric growth areas - converted from mostly forested areas - led to large-scale regional (country size) deforestation of up to 11% of the potential forest. In total, 29 Gt carbon were lost from global forests between 10 000 BC and 2000 BC and were replaced by crops; this value is consistent with other estimates of Prehistoric deforestation. The generation of realistic (agri-)cultural development trajectories at a regional resolution is a major strength of GLUES. Most of the pre-Bronze age deforestation is simulated in a broad farming belt from Central Europe via India to China. Regional carbon loss is, e.g., 5 Gt in Europe and the Mediterranean, 6 Gt on the Indian subcontinent, 18 Gt in East and Southeast Asia, or 2.3 Gt in subsaharan Africa.